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Human Capital and Economic Growth: Pakistan, 1960-2003

This paper investigates the relationship between human capital and economic growth in Pakistan with time series data. Estimated with the Johansen (1991) approach, the aggregate production function rejects one version of the endogenous growth formulation. But the fitted model indicates that the output elasticity of human capital may be expected to increase with foreign technical progress. Higher productivity of secondary schooling than in OECD economies is consistent with the low levels so far attained in Pakistan. High returns to health spending compare very favourably with industrial investment. Human capital is estimated to have accounted for just under one fifth of the increase in GDP per head, a figure that is probably biased downwards because of the unmeasured dimensions of human capital.

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Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2007/22.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Dec 2007
Publication status: Published in The Lahore Journal of Economics , (2008), Vol. 13, No.1, 1-27.
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2007/22
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  1. Behrman, Jere R. & Ross, David & Sabot, Richard, 2008. "Improving quality versus increasing the quantity of schooling: Estimates of rates of return from rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 94-104, February.
  2. Das, Jishnu & Pandey, Priyanka & Zajonc, Tristan, 2006. "Learning levels and gaps in Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4067, The World Bank.
  3. Talat Anwar, 2004. "Recent Macroeconomic Developments and Implications for Poverty and Employment in Pakistan: The Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserve Holdings in South Asia," ASARC Working Papers 2004-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  4. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2001. "Trade Liberalisation and Industrial Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration Analysis," ASARC Working Papers 2001-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  5. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 1997. "Monopoly rights: a barrier to riches," Staff Report 236, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  9. Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
  10. Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2114, David K. Levine.
  11. World Bank, 2002. "Pakistan Development Policy Review : A New Dawn?," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15425, The World Bank.
  12. David Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "The Health and Poverty of Nations: From theory to practice," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 47-71.
  13. Blankenau, William F. & Simpson, Nicole B., 2004. "Public education expenditures and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 583-605, April.
  14. Barbara Sianesi & John Van Reenen, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 157-200, 04.
  15. Fazal Husain & Muhammad Ali Qasim & Khalid Hameed Sheikh, 2003. "An Analysis of Public Expenditure on Education in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 771-780.
  16. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2001. "Does Human Capital Matter for Growth in OECD Countries?: Evidence from Pooled Mean-Group Estimates," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 282, OECD Publishing.
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