Prospects for the UK Balance of Payments
This paper presents disaggregated projections for the UK balance of payments up to 2020. Under conservative assumptions about underlying trends it is projected that the current account deficit will increase from 2% of GDP in 2009 to almost 5% of GDP by the end of the period. Empirical evidence indicates that a deficit of this magnitude is not sustainable and, if unchecked, will lead to a painful adjustment involving lost output and higher unemployment. The paper calls for industrial and other policies to improve UK trade performance, above all in manufacturing, but also in knowledge-intensive services (communications, consultancy, R&D, media etc). It also points out the need to safeguard London’s role as a global financial centre.
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| Length: | |
| Date of creation: | Dec 2009 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Handle: | RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp394 |
| Note: | PRO-1 |
| Contact details of provider: | Web page: http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Ken Coutts & Andrew Glyn & Bob Rowthorn, 2007.
"Structural change under New Labour,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 31(6), pages 845-861, November.
- Andrew Glyn & Ken Coutts, 2007. "Structural Change under New Labour," Economics Series Working Papers 312, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Coutts, K. & Glyn, A. & Rowthorn, B., 2007. "Structural Change under New Labour," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0721, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Martin Weale, 2009. "Commentary: Growth Prospects and Financial Services," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 207(1), pages 4-9, January.
- Bergsten, C. Fred, 2002. "Can the United States afford the tax cuts of 2001?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 373-380, July.
- Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007.
"Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?,"
NBER Chapters,
in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Working Papers 12193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F. Gerard Adams, 2009. "Will Economic Recovery Drive up World Oil Prices?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, April.
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