IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbr/cbrwps/wp394.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prospects for the UK Balance of Payments

Author

Listed:
  • Ken Coutts
  • Bob Rowthorn

Abstract

This paper presents disaggregated projections for the UK balance of payments up to 2020. Under conservative assumptions about underlying trends it is projected that the current account deficit will increase from 2% of GDP in 2009 to almost 5% of GDP by the end of the period. Empirical evidence indicates that a deficit of this magnitude is not sustainable and, if unchecked, will lead to a painful adjustment involving lost output and higher unemployment. The paper calls for industrial and other policies to improve UK trade performance, above all in manufacturing, but also in knowledge-intensive services (communications, consultancy, R&D, media etc). It also points out the need to safeguard London’s role as a global financial centre.

Suggested Citation

  • Ken Coutts & Bob Rowthorn, 2009. "Prospects for the UK Balance of Payments," Working Papers wp394, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp394
    Note: PRO-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp394.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. Gerard Adams, 2009. "Will Economic Recovery Drive up World Oil Prices?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Ken Coutts & Andrew Glyn & Bob Rowthorn, 2007. "Structural change under New Labour," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(6), pages 845-861, November.
    3. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Weale, 2009. "Commentary: Growth Prospects and Financial Services," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 207(1), pages 4-9, January.
    5. Bergsten, C. Fred, 2002. "Can the United States afford the tax cuts of 2001?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 373-380, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ken Coutts & Robert Rowthorn, 2013. "De-industrialisation & the Balance of Payments in Advanced Economies," Working Papers wp453, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    2. Ken Coutts & Robert Rowthorn, 2013. "Re-industrialisation - A Commentary," Working Papers wp454, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance of Payments; forecasts; visible trade; services; investment income; industrial policy.;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ruth Newman and Georgie Cohen). General contact details of provider: http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.