IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbo/wpaper/13342.html

The Impact of Globalization on the U.S. Business Cycle: Technical Paper 1999-6

Author

Listed:
  • Edward N. Gamber
  • Juann Hung

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the U.S. has become more globalized and if so whether that increased globalization has helped hold down inflation and prolong the current economic expansion. We find that U.S. globalization, which has been rising significantly over the past four decades, surged beyond its earlier trend in the 1990s. Import prices exert a greater impact on prices of products in industries faced with greater import penetration. High foreign excess capacity accounts for much of the recent decline in U.S. inflation. Finally, the degree of business cycle

Suggested Citation

  • Edward N. Gamber & Juann Hung, 1999. "The Impact of Globalization on the U.S. Business Cycle: Technical Paper 1999-6," Working Papers 13342, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:13342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/106th-congress-1999-2000/workingpaper/19996_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James A. Orr, 1994. "Has excess capacity abroad reduced U.S. inflationary pressures?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Sum), pages 101-106.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Knetter, Michael M, 1994. "Did the Strong Dollar Increase Competition in U.S. Product Markets?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 192-195, February.
    4. Catherine L. Mann, 1997. "Globalization and productivity in the United States and Germany," International Finance Discussion Papers 595, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 51-77.
    6. Mr. Phillip L Swagel & Mr. Matthew J. Slaughter, 1997. "The Effect of Globalization on Wages in the Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 1997/043, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    4. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    5. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.
    7. Xu, Chenzi & Yang, He, 2024. "Real effects of supplying safe private money," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1997. "Asymétries financières et transmission de la politique monétaire en Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 41-60.
    9. di Giovanni, Julian & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 341-361, March.
    10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    11. Todd E. Clark, 1998. "Progress toward price stability : a 1997 inflation report," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q I), pages 5-21.
    12. Rosa, Carlo, 2013. "Market efficiency broadcasted live: ECB code words and euro exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 167-178.
    13. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Is there a bank lending channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-20.
    14. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2024. "Fifty shades of QE: Robust evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    16. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    17. Rodolfo Helg & Riccardo Faini & Anna M. Falzoni & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Turrini, 2001. "Importing Jobs And Exporting Firms? On The Wage And Employment Implications Of Italy’S Trade And Foreign Direct Investment Flows," International Trade 0103001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Wasim Shahid Malik, 2007. "Monetary Policy Objectives in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:35, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    20. Constantino Hevia & Martín Sola & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Bond risk premia, priced regime shifts, and macroeconomic fundamentals," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022_03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:13342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbogvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.