Retail Interest Rate Pass-Through: The Irish Experience
Most central banks use a short-term interest rate such as the one-month money market interest rate as their main instrument of monetary policy. Changes to this short-term interest rate are the first important step in the transmission of monetary policy. Consumption and investment decisions made by households and firms will be affected by the rate of interest rate charged to them by banks and other financial intermediaries. A critical element of the transmission of monetary policy is the degree and speed at which changes in the short-term policy rate are transmitted to retail rates faced by firms and households. The term pass through refers to the extent to which changes in money market rates are reflected in changes in retail rates. This paper aims at increasing our understanding of this particular aspect of the monetary transmission mechanism in an Irish context between 1980 and 2001. In particular, we seek to answer two questions. 1) To what extent are changes in the one-month money-market rate passed through to various retail lending rates? 2) What is the speed at which changes in this money market rate transmitted to these lending rates? Understanding this process is important since it will determine in part how sensitive the domestic economy is to monetary policy changes as well as determining the speed at which the real economy responds to such policy rate changes. One of our main findings is that pass through from the money market rates to retail lending rates is not complete. In other words, lending rates respond less than one for one to changes in money market rates. For example, a one per cent change in the money market rate results in less than 0.8 of one per cent pass through to mortgage rates. Our results for the speed of adjustment are consistent with those of previous international studies. A significant part of our analysis is that we document the effect of a number of the more substantial developments in the financial environment over the sample period, namely, the institutional arrangements regarding the setting of retail rates, changes in competition and regulatory regimes in financial markets and changes in the conduct and operation of monetary policy. We find that such structural change has had a significant effect on the relationship between the money market rate and the various lending rates both in terms of pass through and speed of adjustment during this period. For example, we find that the dismantling of so called ‘matrix’ (an agreement on the setttng of various retail rates between the Central Bank and the Associated Banks) led to an increase in the degree of pass through between the money market rate and all lending rates considered. Failure to account for such change will lead to biased estimates of both the degree of and speed of pass through from money market rates to lending rates.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002.
"The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation,"
2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2002. "The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000.
"Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0561, Econometric Society.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, 06.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Pesavento, Elena, 2004.
"Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October.
- Pesavento, Elena, 2000. "Analytical Evaluation of the Power of Tests for the Absence of Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4cq4773c, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1993.
"Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-24.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1993. "Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten SlÃ¸k, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union; What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Barry Scholnick, 1999. "Interest Rate Asymmetries in Long-Term Loan and Deposit Markets," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 5-26, September.
- David Neumark & Steven A. Sharpe, 1989.
"Market structure and the nature of price rigidity: evidence from the market for consumer deposits,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Neumark, David & Sharpe, Steven A, 1992. "Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 657-80, May.
- Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 587-623, December.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Angeliki Kourelis & Carlo Cottarelli, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 94/39, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Comparing monetary policy transmission across European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 58-83, March.
- Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
- Haug, A.A., 1992.
"Tests for Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison,"
93-2, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 1991.
"Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
- Diebold, Francis X & Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. "Post-deregulation Bank-Deposit-Rate Pricing: The Multivariate Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 281-91, July.
- Bakhtiar Moazzami, 1999. "Lending rate stickiness and monetary transmission mechanism: the case of Canada and the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 533-538.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995.
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
- Mojon, Benoît, 2000. "Financial structure and the interest rate channel of ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0040, European Central Bank.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Manna, Michele & Pill, Huw & Quiros, Gabriel, 2001. "The Eurosystem's Operational Framework in the Context of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 65-99, Spring.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:6/rt/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Smith)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.