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Volatility contagion: new evidence from market pricing of volatility risk

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  • Raczko, Marek

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel approach to assessing volatility contagion across equity markets. I decompose the variance risk premia of three major stock indices into: crash and non-crash risk components and analyse their cross-market correlations. I find that crash-risk premia exhibit higher correlations than non-crash risk premia, implying the existence of volatility contagion. This suggests that investors believe that equity returns will be more highly correlated across countries during market crashes than during more normal times. The main result of the analysis holds when I apply other measures of co-movement as well as when I allow correlation to be time varying. Moreover I document that crash-premia constitute a large portion of the overall variance risk premia, highlighting the importance of crash-risks. Unlike the existing literature, my approach to testing the existence of volatility contagion does not rely on short periods of financial distress, but allows for crash-risk premia to be computed in tranquil times.

Suggested Citation

  • Raczko, Marek, 2015. "Volatility contagion: new evidence from market pricing of volatility risk," Bank of England working papers 552, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hattori, Masazumi & Shim, Ilhyock & Sugihara, Yoshihiko, 2021. "Cross-stock market spillovers through variance risk premiums and equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Hattori, Masazumi & Shim, Ilhyock & Sugihara, Yoshihiko, 2016. "Volatility Contagion across the Equity Markets of Developed and Emerging Market Economies," ADBI Working Papers 590, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial contagion; variance risk premium; tail-risk; equity co-movement; volatility co-movement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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