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Global rebalancing: the macroeconomic impact on the United Kingdom

  • Haberis, Alex

    ()

    (Bank of England)

  • Markovic, Bojan

    ()

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Mayhew, Karen

    ()

    (Bank of England)

  • Zabczyk, Pawel

    ()

    (Bank of England)

This paper considers the implications for the United States, the United Kingdom and the rest of the world (ROW) of shocks that may contribute to a further reduction in global current account imbalances using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We consider a shock that increases domestic demand in the ROW; a shock that reduces domestic demand in the United States; and a supply shock that raises US productivity relative to other countries. The impact on UK output and inflation depends on the nature of the shock that drives global rebalancing. An increase in domestic demand in the ROW would raise UK exports and output, but would also contribute to increased inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom. Further weakness in US domestic demand is likely to weigh on UK output and inflation. Productivity gains in the United States relative to other countries would worsen the United Kingdom’s current account position, pushing down on output, but would lead to reduced inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 421.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 15 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0421
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  1. Andrea Ferrero & Mark Gertler & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008. "Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Astley, Mark & Giese, Julia & Hume, Michael & Kubelec, Chris, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 49(3), pages 178-190.
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