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Global rebalancing: the macroeconomic impact on the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Haberis, Alex

    () (Bank of England)

  • Markovic, Bojan

    () (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Mayhew, Karen

    () (Bank of England)

  • Zabczyk, Pawel

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper considers the implications for the United States, the United Kingdom and the rest of the world (ROW) of shocks that may contribute to a further reduction in global current account imbalances using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We consider a shock that increases domestic demand in the ROW; a shock that reduces domestic demand in the United States; and a supply shock that raises US productivity relative to other countries. The impact on UK output and inflation depends on the nature of the shock that drives global rebalancing. An increase in domestic demand in the ROW would raise UK exports and output, but would also contribute to increased inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom. Further weakness in US domestic demand is likely to weigh on UK output and inflation. Productivity gains in the United States relative to other countries would worsen the United Kingdom’s current account position, pushing down on output, but would lead to reduced inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Haberis, Alex & Markovic, Bojan & Mayhew, Karen & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2011. "Global rebalancing: the macroeconomic impact on the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 421, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0421
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2011/global-rebalancing-the-macroeconomic-impact-on-the-uk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Astley, Mark & Giese, Julia & Hume, Michael & Kubelec, Chris, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 49(3), pages 178-190.
    4. Andrea Ferrero & Mark Gertler & Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 199-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Igor Fedotenkov & Lex Meijdam, 2013. "Crisis and Pension System Design in the EU: International Spillover Effects Via Factor Mobility and Trade," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 175-197, June.
    2. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Other publications TiSEM 8830bc21-4138-4479-8459-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalances; Current account; DSGE models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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