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The dollar in the turmoil

  • Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès
  • Béreau, Sophie
  • Mignon, Valérie

We study the impact of the global financial crisis on the equilibrium exchange rate of the US dollar. We first simulate the impact of the crisis on the US net foreign asset position. Then, we calculate the equilibrium value of the dollar according both to a BEER and to a FEER approach. We find the case for a strong, although temporary, depreciation of the dollar even more acute than before the crisis. This suggests that the strength of the dollar in late 2008 and early 2009 may be short-lived.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 427-436

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:23:y:2009:i:4:p:427-436
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  1. Philip R. Lane & Gian Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Working Papers 8366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lane, Philip R. & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 119, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: a Guidebook for the Euro-Dollar Rate," Working Papers 2008-02, CEPII research center.
  5. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "Financial exchange rates and international currency exposures," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,22, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
  7. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
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