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Return Volatility and International Portfolio Choice

  • Nicolas Coeurdacier

    (ESSEC and Paris School of Economics)

  • Robert Kollmann

    (ECARES, Free University of Brussels & CEPR)

  • Philippe Martin

    (University Paris I & CEPR)

Despite the liberalization of international capital flows during the last decades, typical investors continue to hold most of their wealth in domestic assets. International RBC models can explain that 'portfolio home bias', if consumption home bias is incorporated, i.e. the fact that the bulk of consumption consists of locally produced goods (Obstfeld (2006)). However RBC models fail to explain the high volatility of equity returns and real exchange rates, and predict excessive cross-country risk sharing. This paper develops a model that simultaneously generates realistic portfolio holdings and return volatilities, and imperfect risk pooling. In the structure here, there are supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks (variations in government purchases, taste shocks), and exogenous shocks to equity risk premia. There is trade in domestic and foreign stocks and bonds. Demand shocks and risk premium shocks generate realistic return volatility, and create a strong bias towards holding local equity. Intuitively, a country-specific demand increase raises the relative price of the locally produced good, if there is consumption home bias, and it thus raises the relative return on local equity; local equity thus has a high return, in states of the world in which the household wishes to consume a lot. By biasing their portfolios toward local equity, countries can also insulate their net foreign assets and consumption spending, from exogenous risk premium shocks. When taste shocks follow random walks, there are sunspot equilibria characterized by sizable departures from full risk sharing.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2007 Meeting Papers with number 474.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:474
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  1. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2013. "The international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think," Working Papers 472, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  2. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Hélène, 1999. "Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
  5. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  7. Akito Matsumoto & Charles Engel, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2008. "A dynamic equilibrium of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  9. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Fabio Ghironi & Jaewoo Lee & Alessandro Rebucci, 2007. "The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, April.
  12. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Macroeconomic Interdependence under Incomplete Markets," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 471, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 07 Feb 2003.
  13. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Helene Rey & Philippe Martin, 2005. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," 2005 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Robert Kollmann, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7640, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  16. Robert Kollmann, 2006. "A dynamic general equilibrium model of international portfolio holding: comment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7622, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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