IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Intertemporal Relation Between Government Revenue and Expenditure in the United Kingdom, 1750-2004

  • Lusine Lusinyan

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • John Thornton


    (Bangor University)

We examine the intertemporal relation between government revenue and expenditure in the UK during 1750–2004. We pay particular attention to long-run trends by applying a battery of unit root and cointegration techniques to the data, and we use a modified Granger-causality test on data spans organized around structural breaks in the series. The results suggest that, allowing for structural breaks, UK real revenue and spending are I(1) series and cointegrated and that Granger-causality runs from government spending to revenue. As such, the ‘spend-tax’ hypothesis appears to best characterize the long-run intertemporal relation between government revenue and spending in the UK.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales) in its series Working Papers with number 10007.

in new window

Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bng:wpaper:10007
Contact details of provider: Postal: Gwynedd LL57 2DG
Phone: +44 (0) 1248 383648
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2000. "Comparison of Tests for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Structural Shift," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0364, Econometric Society.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Thierno Balde & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2005. "Finite sample effects of additive outliers on the Granger-causality test with an application to money growth and inflation in Peru," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(13), pages 841-844.
  5. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1986. "Government Spending, Interest Rates, Prices, and Budget Deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918," NBER Working Papers 2005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Tsangyao Chang & Wen Rong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2002. "Tax-and-spend, spend-and-tax, or fiscal synchronization: new evidence for ten countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1553-1561.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bng:wpaper:10007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Huw Hughes)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.