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Inflation, currency depreciation and households balance sheet in Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Lluberas

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • Juan Odriozola

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of inflation and currency depreciation on wealth distribution in Uruguay. Previous empirical work either completely disregard assets denominated in foreign currency or do not consider the effect of changes in the nominal exchange rate on wealth redistribution. We take a different approach and study not only the effect of unexpected inflation but also of exchange rate movements in nominal wealth redistribution within the household sector. This is of particular importance in Uruguay due to the historical relevance of US dollar denominated assets and liabilities. Based on the recent history, we study three alternative scenarios. A 2002-crisis type scenario with a rate of currency depreciation higher than inflation, an early 2008-crisis type scenario with an appreciation of the peso and low inflation and a 2013-type scenario in which depreciation and inflation are roughly the same. A large proportion of household assets are real and most Uruguayan households do not own financial assets or debts. This results in small movements in households nominal positions after unexpected inflation or currency depreciation, particularly compared to similar studies for developed countries. Our results suggest that a crisis like the one experienced in 2002 with an annual inflation of 26% and a 93.5% devaluation of the currency results in an small increase in wealth inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Lluberas & Juan Odriozola, 2015. "Inflation, currency depreciation and households balance sheet in Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2015009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2015009
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/9.2015.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bach, G L & Stephenson, James B, 1974. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Wealth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Aggregate Implications of Wealth Redistribution: The Case of Inflation," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 493-502, 04-05.
    3. Césaire A. Meh & Yaz Terajima, 2011. "Inflation, nominal portfolios, and wealth redistribution in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1369-1402, November.
    4. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    5. Budd, Edward C & Seiders, David F, 1971. "The Impact of Inflation on the Distribution of Income and Wealth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 128-138, May.
    6. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
    7. Matthias Doepke, "undated". "Inflation as a Redistribution Shock: Effects on Aggregates and Welfare," UCLA Economics Online Papers 412, UCLA Department of Economics.
    8. Klaus Adam & Junyi Zhu, 2016. "Price-Level Changes And The Redistribution Of Nominal Wealth Across The Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 871-906, August.
    9. Meh, Césaire A. & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Terajima, Yaz, 2010. "Aggregate and welfare effects of redistribution of wealth under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 637-652, September.
    10. Césaire A. Meh & Yaz Terajima, 2011. "Inflation, nominal portfolios, and wealth redistribution in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1369-1402, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Labat & Gerardo Licandro, 2021. "Towards a quality currency," Documentos de trabajo 2021005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    2. María Victoria Landaberry, 2019. "Boom de crédito en Uruguay: Identificación y Anticipación," Documentos de trabajo 2019001, Banco Central del Uruguay.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; nominal wealth; redistribution; households;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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