IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfi/wpaper/2026-26.html

Inferring Prices from Quantities

Author

Listed:
  • David Argente

    (Yale University, Yale School of Management Economics, and NBER)

  • Chang-Tai Hsieh

    (University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER)

  • Munseob Lee

    (University of California, San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy)

Abstract

Measuring aggregate inflation is subject to two opposing biases: unobserved quality and variety growth, and the use of incorrect weights when new varieties are misclassified. We show that it is possible to measure an aggregate price index free of these biases when we have a subset of products where these two errors average to zero. This procedure does not require us to distinguish new from existing goods, measure quality attributes directly, or classify new varieties into the appropriate category. We implement this approach using BEA data from 1959 to 2019, approximating the official PCE price index with a CES aggregate of BEA prices at the product level. Our estimate of the inflation rate exceeds the CES aggregate of BEA prices by 0.3 to 1.0 percentage points per year on average. The aggregate bias was close to zero prior to the BLS introducing hedonic adjustments, which suggests that only adjusting for quality bias can lead to an underestimation of overall inflation, particularly in quality-adjusted categories.

Suggested Citation

  • David Argente & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Munseob Lee, 2026. "Inferring Prices from Quantities," Working Papers 2026-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_2026-26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Bils, 2009. "Do Higher Prices for New Goods Reflect Quality Growth or Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 637-675.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2019. "Missing Growth from Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2795-2822, August.
    4. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    5. David R Baqaee & Ariel Burstein, 2023. "Welfare and Output With Income Effects and Taste Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 769-834.
    6. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2009. "A Concordance Between Ten-Digit U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries," NBER Working Papers 15548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David Argente & Munseob Lee, 2021. "Cost of Living Inequality During the Great Recession," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 913-952.
    8. Stephen J Redding & David E Weinstein, 2020. "Measuring Aggregate Price Indices with Taste Shocks: Theory and Evidence for CES Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 503-560.
    9. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    10. Sato, Kazuo, 1976. "The Ideal Log-Change Index Number," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(2), pages 223-228, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Geoffrey Barrows & Hélène Ollivier & Ariell Reshef, 2023. "Production Function Estimation with Multi-Destination Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 10716, CESifo.
    2. David O. Argente & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Munseob Lee, 2020. "Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the US," NBER Working Papers 27806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Raphael Auer & Ariel Burstein & Sarah Lein & Jonathan Vogel, 2024. "Unequal Expenditure Switching: Evidence from Switzerland," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 2572-2603.
    4. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "On Quality and Variety Bias in Aggregate Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1343-1363, September.
    5. Cristina Manteu & Sónia Cabral, 2010. "Gains from Import Variety: The Case of Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. repec:cam:camjip:2408 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hoste, Joris & Verboven, Frank, 2024. "Uncovering the Sources of Geographic Market Segmentation: Evidence from the EU and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 18911, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Xavier Jaravel & Erick Sager, 2018. "What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models," Economic Working Papers 506, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    9. Battogtvor,Enkhmaa & Majune,Socrates Kraido & Montfaucon, Angella Faith, 2025. "Revisiting the Gains from Trade in EMDEs : The Case of Selected East Asian and East African Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11072, The World Bank.
    10. Xavier Jaravel, 2016. "The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations," 2016 Meeting Papers 437, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Brucal, Arlan & Roberts, Michael J., 2019. "Do energy efficiency standards hurt consumers? Evidence from household appliance sales," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 88-107.
    12. Colin J. Hottman & Ryan Monarch, 2018. "Estimating Unequal Gains across U.S. Consumers with Supplier Trade Data," Working Papers 18-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    13. Soderbery, Anson, 2015. "Estimating import supply and demand elasticities: Analysis and implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-17.
    14. Laurien Gilbert, 2018. "Gains from Product Variety and the Local Business Cycle," 2018 Meeting Papers 46, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Kang, Kichun, 2009. "The export price index with the effect of variety and an empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 385-391, March.
    16. Aum, Sangmin, 2024. "Missing growth and economic fluctuations: Empirical evidence from Korea," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    17. Jaravel, Xavier & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US for quantitative trade models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103402, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Peter Öhlinger & Michael Irlacher & Jochen Güntner, 2024. "Not all oil types are alike in trade substitution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    20. Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2017. "Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade," NBER Working Papers 24051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edward, 2010. "Do Developed and Developing Countries Compete Head to Head in High Tech?," Working Paper Series WP10-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Toni Shears The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Toni Shears to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfichus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.