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An Analysis of the Process of Disinflationary Structural Change: The Case of Mexico

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  • Vaughan Daniel

Abstract

I study the diffusion process of permanent disinflationary shocks in the Mexican economy using disaggregated price data for 283 goods across 46 cities in the period 1995-2012. I first show that the distribution of shocks shows considerable heterogeneity, with more than 80% of all cases having experienced a break. I then show that both the likelihood and timing are spatially correlated across cities, and find a positive and concave relationship between CPI weights and the likelihood and timing of a break. These findings suggest that the process of structural change follows a diffusion process across the spatial and goods dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaughan Daniel, 2013. "An Analysis of the Process of Disinflationary Structural Change: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2013-12, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2013-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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