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Les ajustements individuels de prix à la consommation en France : de nouveaux résultats sur la période 2003-2011

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  • Nicoletta Berardi
  • Erwan Gautier
  • Hervé Le Bihan

Abstract

[spa] Los ajustes individuales de precios al consumo en Francia : nuevos resultados para el periodo 2003‑2011 . ¿ Cómo y a qué velocidad se ajustan los precios ? Este estudio examina esta cuestión a partir de las tomas individuales de precios al consumo en Francia, con el objetivo de actualizar los datos sobre la situación y arrojar luz sobre la dinámica de la inflación. Cada mes, se modifican de media alrededor del 17% de los precios. El tamaño medio de los cambios de precio se acerca al 10%. Los pequeños cambios, inferiores al 1%, representan una décima parte del conjunto. Las rebajas y promociones desempeñan un papel menos significativo que en Estados Unidos : 17% de los cambios de precios en Francia están ligados a las rebajas y promociones frente al 30% de Estados Unidos. La ley de la modernización de la economía (LME) apenas sí ha repercutido en esta diferencia. Por último, una parte importante de los cambios de precios se producen al reemplazar los productos. Las tomas individuales de precios permiten separar los márgenes extensivo e intensivo de las variaciones de la inflación. Dichos márgenes corresponden respectivamente a la frecuencia y al nivel de los cambios de precios, así como a la contribución de las rebajas y la sustitución de los productos. Las variaciones del tamaño medio de subidas y bajadas de precios ligadas a las rebajas y promociones contribuyen fuertemente a la volatilidad de la inflación mensual. Una vez excluidas las rebajas y promociones, la variabilidad de la inflación está más correlacionada con la frecuencia de las subidas y las bajadas de precios. Las sustituciones de productos tienen poca incidencia en las variaciones mensuales de la inflación pero contribuyen positivamente a su nivel medio. El aumento acentuado de cambios en enero (principalmente las subidas) desempeña un papel significativo en el nivel medio de la inflación. A pesar de la magnitud de la reciente crisis económica, el comportamiento a la hora de ajustar los precios se ha visto poco modificado : la frecuencia de las bajadas de precios ha aumentado ligeramente mientras que el tamaño de los cambios de precios ha disminuido ligeramente. [fre] Comment et à quelle vitesse les prix s’ajustent‑ils ? Cette étude examine la question à l’aide des relevés individuels de prix à la consommation en France, dans le but de mettre à jour de nouveaux faits et d’éclairer la dynamique de l’inflation. Chaque mois, sont modifiés, en moyenne, environ 17 % des prix. La taille moyenne des changements de prix est proche de 10 %. Les petits changements, inférieurs à 1 %, représentent un dixième de l’ensemble. Les soldes et promotions jouent un rôle important mais moindre qu’aux états‑Unis : 17 % des changements de prix en France sont liés aux soldes ou promotions contre 30 % aux Etats‑Unis. La mise en place de la loi de modernisation de l’économie (LME) a peu affecté cette différence. Enfin, une part importante des changements de prix a lieu à l’occasion des remplacements de produits. Les relevés individuels de prix permettent de séparer les marges extensive et intensive des variations de l’inflation, dues respectivement à la fréquence et au niveau des changements de prix, ainsi que la contribution des soldes et remplacements de produits. Les variations de la taille moyenne des hausses et des baisses de prix liées aux soldes et promotions contribuent fortement à la volatilité de l’inflation mensuelle. Une fois exclus les soldes et promotions, la variabilité de l’inflation est davantage corrélée à celle de la fréquence des hausses et des baisses de prix. Les remplacements de produits contribuent faiblement aux variations mensuelles de l’inflation mais ils contribuent positivement à son niveau moyen. Le pic de changements en janvier (notamment des hausses) joue également un rôle significatif sur le niveau moyen de l’inflation. Malgré l’ampleur de la récente crise économique, le comportement d’ajustement de prix a été peu modifié : la fréquence des baisses de prix a légèrement augmenté alors que la taille des changements de prix a faiblement diminué. [eng] How and at what speed do prices adjust ? This study looks at this question using individual consumer prices in France, bringing out some new facts and shedding light on the dynamics of inflation. Every month, on average, about 17% of prices change. The average price change is in the order of 10%. Small changes, of less than 1%, represent one tenth of all changes that are made. Sales and special offers play an important part but less so than in the United States : in France 17% of price changes are linked with sales or special offers compared with 30% in the United States. The introduction of the law to modernise the economy in France (LME) has had little effect on this difference. Finally, a large proportion of price changes occur when products are replaced. The individual price readings serve to separate extensive and intensive margins of variations in inflation, resulting respectively from the frequency and scale of price changes, and also determine the contribution of sales and the introduction of product replacements. Variations in average price rises and reductions linked with sales and special offers have a strong effect on the volatility of monthly inflation. Once sales and special offers are taken out of the picture, the variability of inflation correlates better with that of the frequency of price increases and reductions. Product replacements make little contribution to monthly variations in inflation but they do have a positive effect on the monthly average. The peak in price changes in January (especially price rises) also has a significant effect on average inflation levels. . Despite the scale of the recent economic crisis, the behaviour of price adjustments has changed little : the frequency of price reductions has increased slightly while the scale of price changes has decreased slightly. [ger] Wie und wie schnell passen sich Preise an ? Die vorliegende Untersuchung geht dieser Frage anhand der individuellen Erhebungen zu den Verbraucherpreisen in Frankreich nach mit dem Ziel, neue Entwicklungen aufzuzeigen und die Dynamik der Inflation zu beleuchten. Etwas 17% der Preise ändern sich durchschnittlich jeden Monat. Der mittlere Umfang der Preisänderungen beträgt knapp 10 %. Kleine Veränderungen von weniger als 1 % machen ein Zehntel aus. Schlussverkäufe und Sonderangebote spielen eine wichtige Rolle, aber nicht im selben Ausmaße wie in den USA : 17 % der Preisänderungen gehen in Frankreich darauf zurück, wohingegen es in den Vereinigten Staaten 30 % sind. Das Gesetz zur Modernisierung der Wirtschaft (LME) von 2008 hatte wenig Einfluss auf diese Differenz. Es ist noch hinzuzufügen, dass sich ein beträchtlicher Teil der Veränderungen anlässlich des Wechsels von alten zu neuen Produkten ereignet. Die individuellen Preiserhebungen ermöglichen es, extensive und intensive Inflationsschwankungen, das heißt, Häufigkeit und Ausmaß der Preisänderungen, zu unterscheiden, sowie die Rolle von Schlussverkäufen bzw. Sonderangeboten und Produktaustausch zu erkennen. Die durch Schlussverkäufe und Sonderangebote bedingten Schwankungen der mittleren Preissteigerungen bzw. – senkungen tragen stark zur Volatilität der monatlichen Inflation bei. Scheidet man diese Faktoren aus, dann korreliert die Inflation mehr mit der Häufigkeit der Preissteigerungen und – senkungen. Der Ersatz alter durch neue Produkte trägt zwar nur wenig zu den monatlichen Inflationsschwankungen, hat aber positiven Einfluss auf ihr mittleres Niveau. Die Veränderungsspitzen (insbesondere Erhöhungen) des Monats Januars spielen ebenfalls eine signifikante Rolle hinsichtlich des mittleren Inflationsniveaus. Das Anpassungsverhalten der Preise hat sich trotz des Ausmaßes der jüngsten Krise wenig gewandelt : Die Häufigkeit der Preissenkungen hat leicht zugenommen, wohingegen das Ausmaß der Änderungen leicht abgenommen hat.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletta Berardi & Erwan Gautier & Hervé Le Bihan, 2013. "Les ajustements individuels de prix à la consommation en France : de nouveaux résultats sur la période 2003-2011," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 460(1), pages 5-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2013_num_460_1_10195
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2013.10195
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2013.10195
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    1. E. Gautier. & A. Lalliard., 2013. "How do VAT changes affect inflation in France?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 32, pages 5-27, Winter.

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