IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1165_18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Listening to the buzz: social media sentiment and retail depositors' trust

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Accornero

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Mirko Moscatelli

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between the rumours on Twitter regarding banks and deposits growth. The sentiment expressed in tweets is analysed and employed for the nowcasting of retail deposits. We show that a Twitter-based indicator of sentiment improves the predictions of a standard benchmark model of depositor discipline based on financial data. We further improve the power of the model introducing a Twitter-based indicator of perceived interconnection, that takes into account spillover effects across banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Accornero & Mirko Moscatelli, 2018. "Listening to the buzz: social media sentiment and retail depositors' trust," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1165, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1165_18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2018/2018-1165/en_tema_1165.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyman, Rickard & Kapadia, Sujit & Tuckett, David, 2021. "News and narratives in financial systems: Exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Rajkamal Iyer & Manju Puri, 2012. "Understanding Bank Runs: The Importance of Depositor-Bank Relationships and Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1414-1445, June.
    3. D’Amuri, Francesco & Marcucci, Juri, 2017. "The predictive power of Google searches in forecasting US unemployment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 801-816.
    4. Hasan, Iftekhar & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski, Oskar & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2013. "Market discipline during crisis: Evidence from bank depositors in transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5436-5451.
    5. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    6. Acharya, Viral & Mora, Nada, 2011. "Are Banks Passive Liquidity Backstops? Deposit Rates and Flows during the 2007-2009 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Maechler, Andrea M. & McDill, Kathleen M., 2006. "Dynamic depositor discipline in US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1871-1898, July.
    8. Bresnahan, Timothy F., 1982. "The oligopoly solution concept is identified," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 87-92.
    9. Ilaria Bordino & Stefano Battiston & Guido Caldarelli & Matthieu Cristelli & Antti Ukkonen & Ingmar Weber, 2012. "Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-17, July.
    10. Park, Sangkyun, 1995. "Market discipline by depositors: Evidence from reduced-form equations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(35), pages 497-514.
    11. Shimizu, Katsutoshi, 2009. "Is the information produced in the stock market useful for depositors?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 34-39, March.
    12. Park, Sangkyun & Peristiani, Stavros, 1998. "Market Discipline by Thrift Depositors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 347-364, August.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Paola Cerchiello & Paolo Giudici & Giancarlo Nicola, 2016. "Big data models of bank risk contagion," DEM Working Papers Series 117, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    16. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    17. Hamada, Miki, 2011. "Market discipline by depositors : impact of deposit insurance on the Indonesian banking sector," IDE Discussion Papers 292, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Nicky J. Ferguson & Dennis Philip & Herbert Y. T. Lam & Jie Michael Guo, 2015. "Media Content and Stock Returns: The Predictive Power of Press," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31, March.
    19. Arnold, Eva A. & Größl, Ingrid & Koziol, Philipp, 2016. "Market discipline across bank governance models: Empirical evidence from German depositors," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 126-138.
    20. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    21. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    22. Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2014. "Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 171-185.
    23. Herbert L. Baer & Elijah Brewer, 1986. "Uninsured deposits as a source of market discipline: some new evidence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 10(Sep), pages 23-31.
    24. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    25. María Soledad Martínez-Peria & Sergio Schmukler, 2002. "Do Depositors Punish Banks for Bad Behavior? Market Discipline, Deposit Insurance, and Banking Crises," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 5, pages 143-174, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Mao, Huina & Counts, Scott & Bollen, Johan, 2015. "Quantifying the effects of online bullishness on international financial markets," Statistics Paper Series 09, European Central Bank.
    27. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    28. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    29. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    30. Mao, Huina & Counts, Scott & Bollen, Johan, 2015. "Quantifying the effects of online bullishness on international financial markets," Statistics Paper Series 9, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier & López-Espinosa, Germán & Mesa-Toro, Andrés, 2021. "The risk implications of the business loan activity in credit unions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Fernandez, Raul & Palma Guizar, Brenda & Rho, Caterina, 2021. "A sentiment-based risk indicator for the Mexican financial sector," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(3).
    3. Mrs. Jana Bricco & Ms. TengTeng Xu, 2019. "Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework," IMF Working Papers 2019/220, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaposty, Florian & Pfingsten, Andreas & Domikowsky, Christian, 2017. "Market Discipline, Deposit Insurance, and Competitive Advantages: Evidence from the Financial Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168146, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Lukasz Kozlowski, 2018. "The Halo Effect in Banking: Evidence from Local Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(5), pages 416-441, October.
    3. Hasan, Iftekhar & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski, Oskar & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2013. "Market discipline during crisis: Evidence from bank depositors in transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5436-5451.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hasan, Iftekhar & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski, Oskar & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2013. "Market discipline during crisis: Evidence from bank depositors in transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5436-5451.
    6. Chiang, Chia-Chun & Niehaus, Greg, 2024. "Market discipline and policy loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Despoina Paraskeuopoulou & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2021. "Bank deposits and Google searches in a crisis economy: Bayesian non‐linear evidence for Greece (2009–2015)," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5408-5424, October.
    8. Dimitris Anastasiou & Apostolos Katsafados, 2023. "Bank deposits and textual sentiment: When an European Central Bank president's speech is not just a speech," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(1), pages 55-87, January.
    9. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2021. "European depositors’ behavior and crisis sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 117-136.
    10. Alexander Klemm & Stefan Parys, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the effects of tax incentives," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 393-423, June.
    11. Qu, Guangjun & Sylwester, Kevin & Wang, Feng, 2016. "Anticorruption and Growth: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 72190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    13. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Katsafados, Apostolos G., 2020. "Bank Deposits Flows and Textual Sentiment: When an ECB President's speech is not just a speech," MPRA Paper 99729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2017. "Market discipline in the Central American bankingsystem," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(5), pages 23-24, Diciembre.
    15. Maechler, Andrea M. & McDill, Kathleen M., 2006. "Dynamic depositor discipline in US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1871-1898, July.
    16. Arshad Ali Bhatti & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2013. "Is the Growth Effect of Financial Development Conditional on Technological Innovation?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 188, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Fazelina Sahul Hamid, 2015. "Dynamic Depositor Discipline: Evidence Based on East Asian Banks," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(3), pages 218-253, August.
    18. Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2017. "Disciplina de mercado en el sistema bancariocentroamericano," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(5), pages 21-22, Diciembre.
    19. Mustapha Sadni Jallab & Monnet Benoît Patrick Gbakou & René Sandretto, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Macroeconomic Instability And Economic Growth in MENA Countries," Working Papers 0817, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    20. Roberto Dell'Anno & Adalgiso Amendola, 2015. "Social Exclusion and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in European Economies," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 274-301, June.
    21. Mohcine Bakhat & José M. Labeaga & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral Lñpez, 2013. "Economic Crisis and Elasticities of Car Fuels: Evidence for Spain," Working Papers fa15-2013, Economics for Energy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank distress; twitter analytics; sentiment analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1165_18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.