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Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate


  • Frederico Pechir Gomes
  • Marcelo Yoshio Takami
  • Vinicius Ratton Brandi


Price distributions estimation has become a relevant subject for risk and pricing literature. Special concern resides on tail probabilities, which usually presents more severe observations than those predicted by Normal distributions. This work aims to verify whether the volatility implied in dollar-real options contains useful information about unexpected large-magnitude returns. Implied volatility is also checked as a predictor for realized volatility. Our results indicate that implied volatilities indeed provide useful information on unusual returns and also work as a good predictor for observed volatility. Finally, we implement an early-warning system and implied volatilities seem to signalize large-magnitude returns.

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  • Frederico Pechir Gomes & Marcelo Yoshio Takami & Vinicius Ratton Brandi, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers Series 174, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:174

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    2. Liliana B Schumacher & Mario I. Bléjer, 1998. "Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments; A Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 98/65, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kaushik I. Amin & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 14, pages 307-326 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Chesney, Marc & Scott, Louis, 1989. "Pricing European Currency Options: A Comparison of the Modified Black-Scholes Model and a Random Variance Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 267-284, September.
    5. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark R. Stone & W. Christopher Walker & Yosuke Yasui, 2009. "From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista; Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing in Brazil in Response to the Global Shock of 2008–09," IMF Working Papers 09/259, International Monetary Fund.

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