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Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate

Author

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  • Frederico Pechir Gomes
  • Marcelo Yoshio Takami
  • Vinicius Ratton Brandi

Abstract

Price distributions estimation has become a relevant subject for risk and pricing literature. Special concern resides on tail probabilities, which usually presents more severe observations than those predicted by Normal distributions. This work aims to verify whether the volatility implied in dollar-real options contains useful information about unexpected large-magnitude returns. Implied volatility is also checked as a predictor for realized volatility. Our results indicate that implied volatilities indeed provide useful information on unusual returns and also work as a good predictor for observed volatility. Finally, we implement an early-warning system and implied volatilities seem to signalize large-magnitude returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Pechir Gomes & Marcelo Yoshio Takami & Vinicius Ratton Brandi, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers Series 174, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Mark R. Stone & W. Christopher Walker & Yosuke Yasui, 2009. "From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing in Brazil in Response to the Global Shock of 2008–09," IMF Working Papers 2009/259, International Monetary Fund.

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