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Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate

  • Frederico Pechir Gomes
  • Marcelo Yoshio Takami
  • Vinicius Ratton Brandi

Price distributions estimation has become a relevant subject for risk and pricing literature. Special concern resides on tail probabilities, which usually presents more severe observations than those predicted by Normal distributions. This work aims to verify whether the volatility implied in dollar-real options contains useful information about unexpected large-magnitude returns. Implied volatility is also checked as a predictor for realized volatility. Our results indicate that implied volatilities indeed provide useful information on unusual returns and also work as a good predictor for observed volatility. Finally, we implement an early-warning system and implied volatilities seem to signalize large-magnitude returns.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps174.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 174.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:174
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Amin, Kaushik I. & Jarrow, Robert A., 1991. "Pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 310-329, September.
  2. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
  3. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
  4. Chesney, Marc & Scott, Louis, 1989. "Pricing European Currency Options: A Comparison of the Modified Black-Scholes Model and a Random Variance Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 267-284, September.
  5. Liliana Schumacher & Mario I. Bléjer, 1998. "Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments; A Value-At-Risk Approach to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 98/65, International Monetary Fund.
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