IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/08-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty, Inflation, and Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Chiu
  • Miguel Molico

Abstract

This paper studies the welfare costs and the redistributive effects of inflation in the presence of idiosyncratic liquidity risk, in a micro-founded search-theoretical monetary model. We calibrate the model to match the empirical aggregate money demand and the distribution of money holdings across households, and study the effects of inflation under the implied degree of market incompleteness. We show that in the presence of imperfect insurance the estimated long-run welfare costs of inflation are on average 40% smaller compared to a complete markets, representative agent economy, and that inflation induces important redistributive effects across households. For example, the welfare gains of reducing inflation from 10% to 0% is 0.59% of income. Furthermore, we estimate that the long-run welfare gains of reducing the typical current inflation target of 2 to 1 percent to be 0.06% of income.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Chiu & Miguel Molico, 2008. "Uncertainty, Inflation, and Welfare," Staff Working Papers 08-13, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp08-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    2. Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera & C hristopher W aller, 2005. "The Distribution Of Money Balances And The Nonneutrality Of Money," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 465-487, May.
    3. Stephen D. Williamson, 2006. "Search, Limited Participation, And Monetary Policy ," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(1), pages 107-128, February.
    4. Levine, David K., 1991. "Asset trading mechanisms and expansionary policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 148-164, June.
    5. Chiu, Jonathan, 2014. "Endogenously Segmented Asset Market In An Inventory-Theoretic Model Of Money Demand," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 438-472, March.
    6. Shouyong Shi, 1997. "A Divisible Search Model of Fiat Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 75-102, January.
    7. Scott J. Dressler, 2011. "Money Holdings, Inflation, And Welfare In A Competitive Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 407-423, May.
    8. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    9. Julia K. Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2005. "Inflation and Interest Rates with Endogenous Market Segmentation," 2005 Meeting Papers 170, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The welfare cost of inflation under imperfect insurance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 79-91, January.
    11. Guillaume Rocheteau & Peter Rupert & Karl Shell & Randall Wright, 2005. "General equilibrium with nonconvexities, sunspots, and money," Working Papers (Old Series) 0513, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Miguel Molico, 2006. "The Distribution Of Money And Prices In Search Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 701-722, August.
    14. David Romer, 1986. "A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 663-685.
    15. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2002. "Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates with Endogenously Segmented Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-112, February.
    16. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-880, December.
    17. Chiu, Jonathan & Molico, Miguel, 2010. "Liquidity, redistribution, and the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 428-438, May.
    18. Boel, Paola & Camera, Gabriele, 2009. "Financial sophistication and the distribution of the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 968-978, October.
    19. Huberto M. Ennis, 2009. "Avoiding The Inflation Tax," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 607-625, May.
    20. Deviatov Alexei & Wallace Neil, 2001. "Another Example in which Lump-sum Money Creation is Beneficial," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, February.
    21. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond, 2003. "On the Sluggish Response of Prices to Money in an Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 10016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Inflation and Welfare in the Steady State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 561-577, June.
    23. Serletis, Apostolos & Yavari, Kazem, 2004. "The welfare cost of inflation in Canada and the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 199-204, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiu, Jonathan & Molico, Miguel, 2010. "Liquidity, redistribution, and the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 428-438, May.
    2. Yi Wen, 2009. "When does heterogeneity matter?," Working Papers 2009-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Miguel Molico & Yahong Zhang, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Distribution of Money and Capital," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 136, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Huberto M. Ennis, 2009. "Avoiding The Inflation Tax," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 607-625, May.
    5. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2020. "An overlapping generations model for monetary policy analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Stephen D. Williamson & Randall Wright, 2010. "New monetarist economics: methods," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 265-302.
    7. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96, Elsevier.
    8. Lucy Qian Liu & Liang Wang & Randall Wright, 2009. "“On the ‘Hot Potato Effect’ of Inflation: Intensive versus Extensive Marginsâ€," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-040, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Jin, Gu & Zhu, Tao, 2022. "Heterogeneity, decentralized trade, and the long-run real effects of inflation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    10. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Waller, Christopher J. & Wright, Randall, 2011. "Money and capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 98-116, March.
    11. Boel, Paola & Camera, Gabriele, 2009. "Financial sophistication and the distribution of the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 968-978, October.
    12. Williamson, Stephen D., 2008. "Monetary policy and distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1038-1053, September.
    13. Boel, Paola, 2018. "The redistributive effects of inflation and the shape of money demand," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 208-219.
    14. Stephen D. Williamson, 2009. "Transactions, Credit, and Central Banking in a Model of Segmented Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 344-362, April.
    15. Francesco Lippi & Stefania Ragni & Nicholas Trachter, 2013. "State dependent monetary policy," Working Paper 13-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. Lippi, Francesco & Ragni, Stefania & Trachter, Nicholas, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous money holdings," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 339-368.
    17. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond, 2009. "Sluggish Responses of Prices and Inflation to Monetary Shocks in an Inventory Model of Money Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(3), pages 911-967.
    18. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Weill, Pierre-Olivier & Wong, Russell, 2018. "A tractable model of monetary exchange with ex-post heterogeneity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), September.
    19. Jonathan Chiu & Miguel Molico, 2021. "Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 133-155, October.
    20. David Andolfatto, 2007. "Incentives and the Limits to Deflationary Policy," Discussion Papers dp07-14, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation: costs and benefits; Monetary policy framework;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Canadian Macro Study Group

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.