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The Effects of Economic News on Bond Market Liquidity

  • Chris D'Souza
  • Charles Gaa

The authors contrast the impact of two sources of information flow on the volatility of prices, trading activity, and liquidity in the brokered interdealer market for Government of Canada bonds. Liquidity varies with the amount of asymmetric information in the market, and order flow plays a central role in the processing of information. The authors find a two-stage adjustment process in the period before and after a scheduled 8:30 a.m. macroeconomic news announcement that is similar to the adjustment process documented by Fleming and Remolona (1999) for the U.S. Treasury market. They contrast these dynamics with the adjustment that occurs around a Government of Canada bond auction. Results are somewhat inconsistent with the patterns observed around macroeconomic news events, but are explained by theory.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-16.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-16
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  1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
  2. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
  3. Hirotaka Inoue, 1999. "The Structure of Government Securities Markets in G10 Countries: Summary of Questionnaire Results," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications, volume 11, pages 1-22 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  5. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
  6. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa & Jing Yang, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds," Working Papers 03-28, Bank of Canada.
  7. Michael Fleming & Asani Sarkar, 1999. "Liquidity in U.S. Treasury Spot and Futures Markets," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications, volume 11, pages 1-14 Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1996. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence From the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  9. Craig H. Furfine & Eli M. Remolona, 2005. "Price discovery in a market under stress: the U.S. Treasury market in fall 1998," Working Paper Series WP-05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Lauterbach, Beni, 1997. "Market microstructure and securities values: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 365-390, September.
  11. David F. Babbel & Craig B. Merrill & Mark F. Meyer & Meiring de Villiers, 2001. "The Effect of Transaction Size on Off-the-Run Treasury Prices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-03, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. Gravelle, Toni, 1999. "Liquidity of the Government of Canada Securities Market: Stylized Facts and Some Market Microstructure Comparisons to the United States Treasury Market," Working Papers 99-11, Bank of Canada.
  13. Yakov Amihud & Haim Mendelson & Beni Lauterbach, 1997. "Market Microstructure and Securities Values: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-004, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  14. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
  15. Benjamin Cohen & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Positive feedback trading under stress: evidence from the US Treasury securities market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 148-180 Bank for International Settlements.
  16. Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano, 2003. "IPO underpricing and after-market liquidity," CSEF Working Papers 99, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 09 Feb 2006.
  17. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06.
  18. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  19. Bank for International Settlements, 1999. "Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 11, April.
  20. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. " Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
  21. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, March.
  22. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32.
  23. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
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