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Deleveraging from Emerging Markets: the Case of Euro-area Banks

Author

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  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero
  • Fielding Chen

Abstract

This paper shows stylized facts on the rather large retrenchment of cross-border lending by Euro-area banks into emerging markets. The clearest case is Asia where Euro-area banks have massively lost market share. The reason, however, is not only related to their retrenching but also to the surge in lending from others banks, especially from Emerging Asia. As a second step, we investigate empirically the determinants of cross-border bank flows with a gravity model and differentiate across Euro-area, US and Asian banks. We find a number of home factors behind the retrenchment in lending. Two are common to all home countries analyzed, namely global risk aversion and trade which, respectively, discourage and foster banks’ overseas lending. Other factors, however, are specific of Euro-area banks, such as the higher cost of funding which is found to discourage lending while poor economic growth tends to foster it. The latter result would indicate that economic weakness of the last few years may have actually cushioned Euro-area banks’ deleveraging from emerging markets. All in all, Euroarea banks’ cross border lending appear to be more dependent on their cycle (both in terms of growth and external cost of funding) when compared with US and Asian banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Fielding Chen, 2013. "Deleveraging from Emerging Markets: the Case of Euro-area Banks," Working Papers 1313, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1313
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "The International Exposure of U.S. Banks," NBER Working Papers 11365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    3. Herrmann, Sabine & Mihaljek, Dubravko, 2010. "The determinants of cross-border bank flows to emerging markets: New empirical evidence on the spread of financial crises," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Sven Blank & Claudia M Buch, 2007. "International bank portfolios: short- and long-run responses to the business cycle," CGFS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 128-155 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Erik Feyen & Katie Kibuuka & Inci Ötker-Robe, 2012. "European Bank Deleveraging : Implications for Emerging Market Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10046, The World Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-border bank lending; emerging markets; Euro area; deleveraging;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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