IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/baf/cbafwp/cbafwp24219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Favaretto
  • Michele Mariani

Abstract

We study the link among populist vote, democratic expectations and democratic performances by using individual level data in 26 European countries in 2012 and 2020. We use a Heckman model to explain the determinants of both the decision to vote and voting for populists: both are predicted by the gap between democratic expectations and perceived performance (that we define as “ideal democracy gap”), while controlling for fixed effects, political and economic variables, and attitudes. These results confirm the expectancy-disconfirmation model (EDM) that links both expectations and ideal democracy gaps for twelve aspects within electoral, liberal, social and direct dimensions of democracy to democratic dissatisfaction. Our analysis reveals differences and similarities among voter groups and within European regions

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Favaretto & Michele Mariani, 2024. "EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24219, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/baffic/baf/papers/cbafwp24219.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergei Guriev, 2018. "Economic Drivers of Populism," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 200-203, May.
    2. Funke, Manuel & Schularick, Moritz & Trebesch, Christoph, 2016. "Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870–2014," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 227-260.
    3. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gian Italo Bischi & Federico Favaretto & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera, 2022. "Long-term causes of populism," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 349-377, January.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    6. Van de Ven, Wynand P. M. M. & Van Praag, Bernard M. S., 1981. "The demand for deductibles in private health insurance : A probit model with sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 229-252, November.
    7. Gabriella Berloffa & Eleonora Matteazzi & Alina Şandor & Paola Villa, 2019. "The quality of employment in the early labour market experience of young Europeans," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(6), pages 1549-1575.
    8. Denny, Kevin & Doyle, Orla, 2008. "Political Interest, Cognitive Ability and Personality: Determinants of Voter Turnout in Britain," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 291-310, April.
    9. Gregg G. Van Ryzin, 2004. "Expectations, performance, and citizen satisfaction with urban services," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 433-448.
    10. Koen Abts & Stefan Rummens, 2007. "Populism versus Democracy," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 55, pages 405-424, June.
    11. Robert A. Huber & Christian H. Schimpf, 2017. "On the Distinct Effects of Left-Wing and Right-Wing Populism on Democratic Quality," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(4), pages 146-165.
    12. L. Guiso & H. Herrera & M. Morelli & T. Sonno, 2024. "Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 588-620, April.
    13. Matsusaka, John G & Palda, Filip, 1999. "Voter Turnout: How Much Can We Explain?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 98(3-4), pages 431-446, March.
    14. Koen Abts & Stefan Rummens, 2007. "Populism versus Democracy," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 55(2), pages 405-424, June.
    15. Anderson, Christopher J. & Guillory, Christine A., 1997. "Political Institutions and Satisfaction with Democracy: A Cross-National Analysis of Consensus and Majoritarian Systems," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 66-81, March.
    16. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    17. Denis Ivanov, 2023. "Economic Insecurity, Institutional Trust and Populist Voting Across Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 461-482, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    2. Güvercin, Deniz, 2022. "Digitalization and populism: Cross-country evidence," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "Household debt in the times of populism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 202-215.
    4. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla, 2020. "A panel data analysis of Latin American populism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 329-343, September.
    5. Eric S. M. Protzer, 2019. "Social Mobility Explains Populism, Not Inequality or Culture," Growth Lab Working Papers 146, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    6. Reinhard Heinisch & Carsten Wegscheider, 2020. "Disentangling How Populism and Radical Host Ideologies Shape Citizens’ Conceptions of Democratic Decision-Making," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(3), pages 32-44.
    7. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Massimo Bordignon & Tommaso Colussi, 2020. "Dancing with the Populist. New Parties, Electoral Rules and Italian Municipal Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 8626, CESifo.
    9. Maxence Follot, 2024. "The impact of populism on central bank communication: Analyzing theoretical developments and the case of Hungary," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 21(1), pages 65-95, June.
    10. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "The effect of populism on high-skilled migration: Evidence from inventors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Tito Boeri & Prachi Mishra & Chris Papageorgiou & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Populism and Civil Society," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 863-895, October.
    12. Carl Leonard Fischer & Lorenz Meister, 2023. "Economic Determinants of Populism," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 145, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Gerling, Lena & Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2022. "Contagious populists: The impact of election information shocks on populist party preferences in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Klein, Mathias & Pessoa, Sofia, 2022. "The Political Costs of Austerity," Working Paper Series 418, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2025. "Structural reforms and economic performance: the experience of advanced economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Giray Gozgor, 2020. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Rising Populism in the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 8499, CESifo.
    17. Tim Friehe & Christian Pfeifer, 2024. "Predicting satisfaction with democracy in Germany using local economic conditions, social capital, and individual characteristics," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 335-377, September.
    18. Ntentas, Raphael, 2021. "Quantifying political populism and examining the link with economic insecurity: evidence from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Vigvári, Gábor, 2022. "Transzformáció és a populizmus a visegrádi országokban [Transformation and populism in the V4 countries]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 339-366.
    20. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile internet and the rise of political tribalism in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp1877, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    populism; voting behaviour; democratic dissatisfaction; EDM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michela Pozzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbbocit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.