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Estimating the Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms

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  • Quiggin, J.

Abstract

In a recent report (IC 1995a) the Industry Commission (IC) estimates that the implementation of the Hilmer Report and related reforms will yield a GDP gaim of around 5.4 per cent. In this paper, assumption are subject to a detailed critique. It is argued that most of the estimated productivity gains are grossly over-optimistic, representing upper bounds of possible achievement rather than likely outcomes. Furthermore, it is argued that the dominant flow-on effects of microeconomic reform will be negative, arising from the fact that at least some of the workers directly displaced by reform will permanently displaced from the employed labour force.

Suggested Citation

  • Quiggin, J., 1995. "Estimating the Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 338, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:338
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Kenyon, 2000. "The Good Society: A Guide to Economic Policy," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 303-320.
    2. George Verikios & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2016. "Structural change and income distribution: the case of Australian telecommunications," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 549-570, October.
    3. Evan Capeluck, 2016. "A Comparison of Australian and Canadian Productivity Performance: Lessons for Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2016-07, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    4. Tim Nelson & Joel Gilmore & Tahlia Nolan, 2023. "Be Wary of Paying Wounded Bulls – Capacity Markets in Australia's National Electricity Market," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 42(1), pages 72-91, March.
    5. Verikios, George & Zhang, Xiao-guang, 2015. "Reform of Australian urban transport: A CGE-microsimulation analysis of the effects on income distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 7-17.
    6. Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2015. "Caught between theory and practice: Government, market, and regulatory failure in electricity sector reforms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 16-24.
    7. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2005. "Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the effects of eCommerce on Australia," Chapters, in: Sisira Jayasuriya (ed.), Trade Theory, Analytical Models and Development, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. George Verikios & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2010. "Structural Change in the Australian Electricity Industry During the 1990s and the Effect on Household Income Distribution," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-207, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Bayar, Ali & Ben-Ahmed, Ghazi & Safadi, Raed, 2002. "WTO Negotiations and the MENA Region: A Preliminary Appraisal," Conference papers 331040, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Naughten, Barry, 2003. "Economic assessment of combined cycle gas turbines in Australia: Some effects of microeconomic reform and technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 225-245, February.
    11. John L. Whiteman, 1998. "The Potential Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms: Electricity Supply," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-128, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    12. Peter Kenyon, 1998. "Discussion of 'Dimensions, Structure and History of Australian Unemployment'," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Cowgill, Matt, 2013. "A Shrinking Slice of the Pie: The Labour Income Share in Australia," MPRA Paper 46209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Madden, John Robert & Giesecke, James, 2002. "Competition reforms and collaborative federalism: a dynamic multiregional applied general equilibrium analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa02p343, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Tim Nelson & Stephanie Bashir & Eleanor McCracken-Hewson & Michael Pierce, 2017. "The Changing Nature of the Australian Electricity Industry," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 104-120, June.
    16. Aghdam, Reza Fathollahzadeh, 2011. "Dynamics of productivity change in the Australian electricity industry: Assessing the impacts of electricity reform," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3281-3295, June.
    17. Tim Nelson, 2017. "Redesigning a 20th century regulatory framework to deliver 21st century energy technology," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 147-164, April.
    18. John L. Whiteman, 1999. "The Measurement Of Efficiency Where There Are Multiple Outputs," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-134, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    19. K.W. Clements, 2000. "Lower Energy Costs and the WA Economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    20. John Quiggin, 2001. "The Australian Productivity Miracle: A Sceptical View," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 8(4), pages 333-348.
    21. Verikios, George & Zhang, Xiao-guang, 2013. "Structural change in the Australian electricity industry during the 1990s and the effect on household income distribution: A macro–micro approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 564-575.
    22. James Giesecke & John R. Madden, 2003. "Regional Labour Market Adjustment to Competition Policy Reforms: A Dynamic CGE Framework for Assessment," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 6(3), pages 409-433, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PRODUCTIVITY; EVALUATION; ECONOMIC REFORM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • N56 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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