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Estimating the Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms

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  • Quiggin, J.

Abstract

In a recent report (IC 1995a) the Industry Commission (IC) estimates that the implementation of the Hilmer Report and related reforms will yield a GDP gaim of around 5.4 per cent. In this paper, assumption are subject to a detailed critique. It is argued that most of the estimated productivity gains are grossly over-optimistic, representing upper bounds of possible achievement rather than likely outcomes. Furthermore, it is argued that the dominant flow-on effects of microeconomic reform will be negative, arising from the fact that at least some of the workers directly displaced by reform will permanently displaced from the employed labour force.

Suggested Citation

  • Quiggin, J., 1995. "Estimating the Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 338, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:338
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    Cited by:

    1. Naughten, Barry, 2003. "Economic assessment of combined cycle gas turbines in Australia: Some effects of microeconomic reform and technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 225-245, February.
    2. Tim Nelson, 2017. "Redesigning a 20th century regulatory framework to deliver 21st century energy technology," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 147-164, April.
    3. Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2015. "Caught between theory and practice: Government, market, and regulatory failure in electricity sector reforms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 16-24.
    4. Madden, John Robert & Giesecke, James, 2002. "Competition reforms and collaborative federalism: a dynamic multiregional applied general equilibrium analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa02p343, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2005. "Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the effects of eCommerce on Australia," Chapters, in: Sisira Jayasuriya (ed.),Trade Theory, Analytical Models and Development, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. George Verikios & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2016. "Structural change and income distribution: the case of Australian telecommunications," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 549-570, October.
    7. John L. Whiteman, 1999. "The Measurement Of Efficiency Where There Are Multiple Outputs," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-134, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    8. Evan Capeluck, 2016. "A Comparison of Australian and Canadian Productivity Performance: Lessons for Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2016-07, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    9. John L. Whiteman, 1998. "The Potential Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms: Electricity Supply," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-128, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    10. Verikios, George & Zhang, Xiao-guang, 2015. "Reform of Australian urban transport: A CGE-microsimulation analysis of the effects on income distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 7-17.
    11. Verikios, George & Zhang, Xiao-guang, 2013. "Structural change in the Australian electricity industry during the 1990s and the effect on household income distribution: A macro–micro approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 564-575.
    12. Tim Nelson & Stephanie Bashir & Eleanor McCracken-Hewson & Michael Pierce, 2017. "The Changing Nature of the Australian Electricity Industry," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 104-120, June.
    13. K.W. Clements, 2000. "Lower Energy Costs and the WA Economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Aghdam, Reza Fathollahzadeh, 2011. "Dynamics of productivity change in the Australian electricity industry: Assessing the impacts of electricity reform," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3281-3295, June.
    15. Peter Kenyon, 1998. "Discussion of 'Dimensions, Structure and History of Australian Unemployment'," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. John Quiggin, 2001. "The Australian Productivity Miracle: A Sceptical View," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 8(4), pages 333-348.
    17. George Verikios & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2010. "Structural Change in the Australian Electricity Industry During the 1990s and the Effect on Household Income Distribution," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-207, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    18. Cowgill, Matt, 2013. "A Shrinking Slice of the Pie: The Labour Income Share in Australia," MPRA Paper 46209, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PRODUCTIVITY; EVALUATION; ECONOMIC REFORM;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • N56 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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