IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aug/augsbe/0335.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare Revisited

Author

Abstract

Cho, Cooley, and Kim (RED, 2015) (CCK) consider the welfare effects of removing multiplicative productivity shocks from real business cycle models. In a model that admits an analytical solution they argue convincingly that the positive welfare effect of removing uncertainty can be dominated by a negative mean effect arising from the optimal response of household labor supply. While the presentation of this model is quite elaborate, the details of their subsequent quantitative analysis of several versions of the standard real business cycle model remain vague. We lay out the general procedure of computing second-order accurate approximations of welfare gains or losses in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In order to be able to consider mean preserving increases in the size of shocks we extend the computation of second-order approximations of the policy functions pioneered by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (JEDC, 2004). Our computations show that different from the results reported in CCK the mean effect never dominates the fluctuations effect. Welfare measures computed from weighted residuals methods confirm the logic behind our perturbation approach and verify the accuracy of our estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Heiberger & Alfred Maussner, 2018. "Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare Revisited," Discussion Paper Series 335, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/institut/paper/335.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2477-2508, December.
    2. Jang-Ok Cho & Thomas Cooley & Hyung Seok Kim, 2015. "Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 185-200, April.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2000. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1179-1232, July.
    4. Jim Dolmas, 1998. "Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 646-676, July.
    5. Jang-Ok Cho & Thomas F. Cooley & Louis Phaneuf, 1997. "The Welfare Cost of Nominal Wage Contracting," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 465-484.
    6. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
    7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    10. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
    11. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1471-1486, August.
    12. Heer, Burkhard & Maußner, Alfred, 2015. "The Cash-In-Advance Constraint In Monetary Growth Models With Labor Market Search," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 144-166, January.
    13. Heer, Burkhard & Maußner, Alfred, 2008. "Computation Of Business Cycle Models: A Comparison Of Numerical Methods," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 641-663, November.
    14. Barillas, Francisco & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2009. "Doubts or variability?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2388-2418, November.
    15. Judd, Kenneth L. & Guu, Sy-Ming, 1997. "Asymptotic methods for aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1025-1042, June.
    16. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Aysegul Sahin & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 2009. "Revisiting the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 393-402, July.
    17. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    18. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
    19. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Business Cycles in Economies with Idiosyncratic Human Capital Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 846-868, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; mean effect; second order solution; risk aversion; welfare costs;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Albrecht Bossert). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ivaugde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.