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Factor Models of Stock Returns: GARCH Errors versus Autoregressive Betas

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  • Panagiotis Samartzis
  • Nikitas Pittis

    () (University of Piraeus, Greece)

  • Nikolaos Kourogenis

    () (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus.)

  • Phoebe Koundouri

Abstract

The Single Factor Model (SFMT) of stock returns in its simplest form, namely the one that assumes time-invariant beta and homoskedastic error has been found to be empirically inadequate.The beta coefficient and the error process exhibit signi��cant time-variation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity, respectively. Out of these empirical failures, two extended versions of SFMT have emerged: the ��first (SFMT-AR) assumes that the beta coefficient is an autoregressive process, whereas the second (SFMT-GARCH) maintains the assumption of time-invariant beta but assumes that the error follows a GARCH process. The purpose of this paper is twofold: fi��rst to show that SFMT-AR is capable of reproducing the most important stylized facts of stock returns, namely conditional heteroskedasticity and leptokurtosis, even in the case in which the factor is an independent process; second to compare SFMT-GARCH and SFMT-AR in terms of their in-sample and out-of-sample performance. The most important result from these comparisons is that SFMT-AR dominates SFMT-GARCH in terms of forecasting the second moments of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Panagiotis Samartzis & Nikitas Pittis & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Phoebe Koundouri, "undated". "Factor Models of Stock Returns: GARCH Errors versus Autoregressive Betas," DEOS Working Papers 1318, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    autoregressive beta; stock returns; single factor model; conditional heteroscedasticity;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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