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What lowered inflation in India: Monetary policy or commodity prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Pulapre Balakrishnan

    (pulapre.balakrishnan@ashoka.edu.in)

  • M Parameswaran

    (Associate Professor, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram)

Abstract

India has seen lower inflation by historical standards, for the past five years. This has been attributed by some observers to the adoption of inflation targeting by the country’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India. In particular, it has been asserted that the taming of inflation reflects the anchoring of expectations of it through inflation targeting. We evaluate these claims. Our estimates indicate that there is no basis to the claim that inflation has been lowered due to the anchoring of expectations. On the other hand, we are able to fully account for the trajectory of inflation in India in terms of an explanation of inflation other than the one on which inflation targeting is premised.

Suggested Citation

  • Pulapre Balakrishnan & M Parameswaran, 2021. "What lowered inflation in India: Monetary policy or commodity prices?," Working Papers 66, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ash:wpaper:66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balakrishnan, Pulapre, 1994. "How best to model inflation in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 677-683, December.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam & Choudhary, Rishabh, 2021. "Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 77-141.
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