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Bricks or Cash? Externalities of Housing Upgrading in High-density Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Sumit Agarwal
  • Ying Deng
  • Yi Fan
  • Qi Gao
  • Jing Li
  • Lin Ma

Abstract

We estimate housing externalities in a high-density city, exploiting the staggered rollout of Singapore's nationwide Main Upgrading Programme for public housing. Controlling for nonrandom neighborhood exposure, we find that upgrading raises treated buildings' prices by 11.5% upon completion and neighboring buildings' resale prices by about 2% within 500 meters, decaying to zero beyond. A model with distance-decaying externalities shows that in dense settings spillovers justify the distortions of in-kind provision; this advantage diminishes and reverses at lower densities. Administrative data on over 2 million residents show that upgrading disproportionately retains older incumbents, suggesting age-specific amenities as an underexplored externality channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumit Agarwal & Ying Deng & Yi Fan & Qi Gao & Jing Li & Lin Ma, 2026. "Bricks or Cash? Externalities of Housing Upgrading in High-density Cities," Papers 2609.21478, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2609.21478
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    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.21478
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