IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2608.11464.html

Estimating the perturbed utility route choice model with trip-level data

Author

Listed:
  • Mogens Fosgerau
  • Nikolaj Nielsen
  • Thomas Rasmussen
  • Rui Yao

Abstract

We provide an estimator for the perturbed utility route choice (PURC) model that works with data at the level of individual trips. The estimator is a nested fixed-point algorithm that combines an upper bias-corrected linear regression problem with a lower individual-level perturbed utility maximization problem. We establish the statistical properties of the microPURC estimator and confirm these results with an experiment using simulated data. Finally, we demonstrate the estimator in practice using a large real-world dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Mogens Fosgerau & Nikolaj Nielsen & Thomas Rasmussen & Rui Yao, 2026. "Estimating the perturbed utility route choice model with trip-level data," Papers 2608.11464, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.11464
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.11464
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mogens Fosgerau & Julien Monardo & André de Palma, 2024. "The Inverse Product Differentiation Logit Model," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 329-370, November.
    2. Fosgerau, Mogens & Frejinger, Emma & Karlstrom, Anders, 2013. "A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 70-80.
    3. Rui Yao & Mogens Fosgerau & Mads Paulsen & Thomas Kjær Rasmussen, 2024. "Perturbed Utility Stochastic Traffic Assignment," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(4), pages 876-895, July.
    4. Mai, Tien & Fosgerau, Mogens & Frejinger, Emma, 2015. "A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 100-112.
    5. Fuchang Gao & Lixing Han, 2012. "Implementing the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm with adaptive parameters," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 259-277, January.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, January.
    7. Akamatsu, Takashi, 1996. "Cyclic flows, Markov process and stochastic traffic assignment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 369-386, October.
    8. Mai, Tien, 2016. "A method of integrating correlation structures for a generalized recursive route choice model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 146-161.
    9. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    10. Che‐Lin Su & Kenneth L. Judd, 2012. "Constrained Optimization Approaches to Estimation of Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2213-2230, September.
    11. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2014. "Estimation of Random-Coefficient Demand Models: Two Empiricists' Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 34-59, March.
    12. Oyama, Yuki & Hara, Yusuke & Akamatsu, Takashi, 2022. "Markovian traffic equilibrium assignment based on network generalized extreme value model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 135-159.
    13. Victor Chernozhukov & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2022. "Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1501-1535, July.
    14. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rui Yao & Mogens Fosgerau & Mads Paulsen & Thomas Kjær Rasmussen, 2024. "Perturbed Utility Stochastic Traffic Assignment," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(4), pages 876-895, July.
    2. Yuki Oyama, 2022. "Capturing positive network attributes during the estimation of recursive logit models: A prism-based approach," Papers 2204.01215, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    3. Hung Tran & Viet Bui & Tien Mai, 2026. "Learning Sequential Mobility Choice: A Review of Route and Activity Choice through Inverse Reinforcement Learning and Imitation Learning," Papers 2608.15339, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2026.
    4. Evanthia Kazagli & Michel Bierlaire & Matthieu de Lapparent, 2020. "Operational route choice methodologies for practical applications," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 43-74, February.
    5. Yuki Oyama, 2023. "Global path preference and local response: A reward decomposition approach for network path choice analysis in the presence of locally perceived attributes," Papers 2307.08646, arXiv.org.
    6. Oyama, Yuki & Hato, Eiji, 2019. "Prism-based path set restriction for solving Markovian traffic assignment problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 528-546.
    7. Takeshi Fukasawa, 2026. "Sequential algorithm for structural estimations with equilibrium constraints," Papers 2606.04356, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    8. Oyama, Yuki, 2024. "Global path preference and local response: A reward decomposition approach for network path choice analysis in the presence of visually perceived attributes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    9. Oyama, Yuki & Hara, Yusuke & Akamatsu, Takashi, 2022. "Markovian traffic equilibrium assignment based on network generalized extreme value model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 135-159.
    10. Rui Yao & Kenan Zhang, 2026. "Perturbed utility Markovian traffic equilibrium: theory and computation," Papers 2607.09568, arXiv.org.
    11. Mogens Fosgerau & Mads Paulsen & Thomas Kj{ae}r Rasmussen, 2021. "A perturbed utility route choice model," Papers 2103.13784, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    12. Tien Mai & The Viet Bui & Quoc Phong Nguyen & Tho V. Le, 2022. "Estimation of Recursive Route Choice Models with Incomplete Trip Observations," Papers 2204.12992, arXiv.org.
    13. Hung Tran & Tien Mai & Minh Hoang Ha, 2025. "Equilibrium-Constrained Estimation of Recursive Logit Choice Models," Papers 2510.16886, arXiv.org.
    14. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," NBER Working Papers 29291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    16. Yizao Liu & Xuan Chen & Adam N. Rabinowitz & Benjamin Campbell, 2020. "Demand, challenges, and marketing strategies in the retail promotion of local brand milk," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(5), pages 655-668, September.
    17. Rui Yao & Xinyu Ma & Kenan Zhang, 2026. "Mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) system as a multi-leader-multi-follower game: A single-level variational inequality (VI) formulation," Papers 2601.19880, arXiv.org.
    18. McCarthy, Stephen & Naqavi, Fatemeh & Karlström, Anders, 2025. "Recursive logit models for dynamic versus sequential trip chaining," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Pál, László & Sándor, Zsolt, 2023. "Comparing procedures for estimating random coefficient logit demand models with a special focus on obtaining global optima," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Mai, Tien & Yu, Xinlian & Gao, Song & Frejinger, Emma, 2021. "Routing policy choice prediction in a stochastic network: Recursive model and solution algorithm," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 42-58.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.11464. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.