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Price Discovery in Cryptocurrency Markets

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  • Juan Plazuelo Pascual
  • Carlos Tardon Rubio
  • Juan Toro Cebada
  • Angel Hernando Veciana

Abstract

This document analyzes price discovery in cryptocurrency markets by comparing centralized and decentralized exchanges, as well as spot and futures markets. The study focuses first on Ethereum (ETH) and then applies a similar approach to Bitcoin (BTC). Chapter 1 outlines the theoretical framework, emphasizing the structural differences between centralized exchanges and decentralized finance mechanisms, especially Automated Market Makers (AMMs). It also explains how to construct an order book from a liquidity pool in a decentralized setting for comparison with centralized exchanges. Chapter 2 describes the methodological tools used: Hasbrouck's Information Share, Gonzalo and Granger's Permanent-Transitory decomposition, and the Hayashi-Yoshida estimator. These are applied to explore lead-lag dynamics, cointegration, and price discovery across market types. Chapter 3 presents the empirical analysis. For ETH, it compares price dynamics on Binance and Uniswap v2 over a one-year period, focusing on five key events in 2024. For BTC, it analyzes the relationship between spot and futures prices on the CME. The study estimates lead-lag effects and cointegration in both cases. Results show that centralized markets typically lead in ETH price discovery. In futures markets, while they tend to lead overall, high-volatility periods produce mixed outcomes. The findings have key implications for traders and institutions regarding liquidity, arbitrage, and market efficiency. Various metrics are used to benchmark the performance of modified AMMs and to understand the interaction between decentralized and centralized structures.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Plazuelo Pascual & Carlos Tardon Rubio & Juan Toro Cebada & Angel Hernando Veciana, 2025. "Price Discovery in Cryptocurrency Markets," Papers 2506.08718, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2506.08718
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    3. Lioba Heimbach & Ye Wang & Roger Wattenhofer, 2021. "Behavior of Liquidity Providers in Decentralized Exchanges," Papers 2105.13822, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    4. Alfred Lehar & Christine Parlour & Marius Zoican, 2023. "Fragmentation and optimal liquidity supply on decentralized exchanges," Papers 2307.13772, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    5. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
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