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An Empirical Analysis of Tiff's Impact on American Business Formation

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  • Ruiming Min

Abstract

This study examines whether the tariff policies delivered on promises to revitalize American manufacturing and create jobs. Using county-level business application data from 2018-2025, we analyze the relationship between tariff implementation and new business formation through linear regression analysis. Our findings reveal a statistically significant positive association between US tariffs on China and American business applications. However, when Chinese retaliatory tariffs are included in the analysis, their negative coefficient substantially exceeds the positive US tariff effect, suggesting that retaliatory measures largely offset the benefits of protectionist policies. Control variables including inflation rate, federal funds rate, and government spending show significant positive effects on business formation. These results indicate that while protectionist trade policies may stimulate domestic business formation, their effectiveness is significantly diminished by retaliatory responses from trading partners. The study provides evidence that unilateral tariff measures without diplomatic coordination produce limited net benefits, confirming that trade wars create scenarios where potential gains are neutralized by counteractions.

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  • Ruiming Min, 2025. "An Empirical Analysis of Tiff's Impact on American Business Formation," Papers 2506.00999, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2506.00999
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    1. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
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