The Long-Run Impact of Electoral Violence on Health and Human Capital in Kenya

This paper examines the long-term effects of prenatal, childhood, and teen exposure to electoral violence on health and human capital. Furthermore, it investigates whether these effects are passed down to future generations. We exploit the temporal and spatial variation of electoral violence in Kenya between 1992 and 2013 in conjunction with a nationally representative survey to identify people exposed to such violence. Using coarsened matching, we find that exposure to electoral violence between prenatal and the age of sixteen reduces adult height. Previous research has demonstrated that protracted, large-scale armed conflicts can pass down stunting effects to descendants. In line with these studies, we find that the low-scale but recurrent electoral violence in Kenya has affected the height-for-age of children whose parents were exposed to such violence during their growing years. Only boys exhibit this intergenerational effect, possibly due to their increased susceptibility to malnutrition and stunting in Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to previous research on large-scale conflicts, childhood exposure to electoral violence has no long-term effect on educational attainment or household consumption per capita. Most electoral violence in Kenya has occurred during school breaks, which may have mitigated its long-term effects on human capital and earning capacity.