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Bayesian modelling of time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity

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  • Sayar Karmakar
  • Arkaprava Roy

Abstract

Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market variability. However we can achieve significantly better insight by considering the time-varying analogues of these models. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to the estimation of such models and develop computationally efficient MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling. We also established posterior contraction rates with increasing sample size in terms of the average Hellinger metric. The performance of our method is compared with frequentist estimates and estimates from the time constant analogues. To conclude the paper we obtain time-varying parameter estimates for some popular Forex (currency conversion rate) and stock market datasets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sayar Karmakar & Arkaprava Roy, 2020. "Bayesian modelling of time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity," Papers 2009.06007, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2009.06007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Shinn-Juh Lin & Jian Yang, 1999. "Testing Shifts in Financial Models with Conditional Heteroskedasticity: An Empirical Distribution Function Approach," Research Paper Series 30, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Wang, Kai Y.K. & Chen, Cathy W.S. & So, Mike K.P., 2023. "Quantile three-factor model with heteroskedasticity, skewness, and leptokurtosis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Joshua Nielsen, 2022. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Forecastability of Gold Returns (and Volatility)," Working Papers 202228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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