IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1808.09686.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Switching Cost Models as Hypothesis Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel N. Cohen
  • Timo Henckel
  • Gordon D. Menzies
  • Johannes Muhle-Karbe
  • Daniel J. Zizzo

Abstract

We relate models based on costs of switching beliefs (e.g. due to inattention) to hypothesis tests. Specifically, for an inference problem with a penalty for mistakes and for switching the inferred value, a band of inaction is optimal. We show this band is equivalent to a confidence interval, and therefore to a two-sided hypothesis test.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel N. Cohen & Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2018. "Switching Cost Models as Hypothesis Tests," Papers 1808.09686, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1808.09686
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.09686
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Altarovici & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Halil Soner, 2015. "Asymptotics for fixed transaction costs," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 363-414, April.
    2. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2004. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume under Fixed Transactions Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 1054-1090, October.
    3. Andrew S. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 703-725.
    4. C. Atkinson & P. Wilmott, 1995. "Portfolio Management With Transaction Costs: An Asymptotic Analysis Of The Morton And Pliska Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 357-367, October.
    5. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2017. "Are State- and Time-Dependent Models Really Different?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 379-457.
    6. Menzies Gordon Douglas & Zizzo Daniel John, 2009. "Inferential Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Jacopo Magnani & Aspen Gorry & Ryan Oprea, 2016. "Time and State Dependence in an Ss Decision Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 285-310, January.
    8. Lixin Huang & Hong Liu, 2007. "Rational Inattention and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1999-2040, August.
    9. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226577838, July.
    10. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Max Reppen & H. Mete Soner, 2016. "A Primer on Portfolio Choice with Small Transaction Costs," Papers 1612.01302, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    11. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    12. Ralf Korn, 1998. "Portfolio optimisation with strictly positive transaction costs and impulse control," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 85-114.
    13. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eich-3.
    14. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2013. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1455-1481, July.
    15. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226490229.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Samuel N. Cohen & Derek Snow & Lukasz Szpruch, 2021. "Black-box model risk in finance," Papers 2102.04757, arXiv.org.
    2. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2019. "Three Dimensions of Central Bank Credibility and Inferential Expectations: The Euro Zone," Working Paper Series 56, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Henckel, Timo & Menzies, Gordon D. & Moffatt, Peter & Zizzo, Daniel J., 2019. "Three dimensions of central bank credibility and inferential expectations: The Euro zone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 294-308.
    4. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Peter G. Moffatt & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2022. "Belief adjustment: a double hurdle model and experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 26-67, February.
    5. Hidekazu Yoshioka & Yuta Yaegashi & Motoh Tsujimura & Yumi Yoshioka, 2021. "Cost‐efficient monitoring of continuous‐time stochastic processes based on discrete observations," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 113-138, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Peter G. Moffatt & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2022. "Belief adjustment: a double hurdle model and experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 26-67, February.
    2. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Max Reppen & H. Mete Soner, 2016. "A Primer on Portfolio Choice with Small Transaction Costs," Papers 1612.01302, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    3. Albert Altarovici & Max Reppen & H. Mete Soner, 2016. "Optimal Consumption and Investment with Fixed and Proportional Transaction Costs," Papers 1610.03958, arXiv.org.
    4. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2017. "Sticky Belief Adjustment: A Double Hurdle Model and Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 40, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chiţu & Thorsten Beck, 2019. "Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 315-363.
    6. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    7. Erik Bengtsson & Enrico Rubolino & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History?," World Inequality Lab Working Papers hal-02876964, HAL.
    8. Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization," Papers 2010.02378, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    9. Xinfu Chen & Min Dai & Wei Jiang & Cong Qin, 2022. "Asymptotic analysis of long‐term investment with two illiquid and correlated assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1133-1169, October.
    10. Stephen S. Poloz, 2019. "Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt," Discussion Papers 2019-12, Bank of Canada.
    11. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "The Second Era of Globalization Is Not yet Over: An Historical Perspective," Economics Working Papers 17103, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    12. Kiley, Michael T., 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. repec:ces:ifodic:v:15:y:2018:i:4:p:50000000000853 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Paul Wachtel, 2018. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to Growth or Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 34-43, March.
    15. Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Growth In The Shadows: Effect Of The Shadow Economy On U.S. Economic Growth Over More Than A Century," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 50-67, January.
    16. Mogens Graf Plessen & Alberto Bemporad, 2017. "A posteriori multi-stage optimal trading under transaction costs and a diversification constraint," Papers 1709.07527, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    17. Giorgos Galanis & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2020. "Financialisation, working conditions and contagion dynamics in developing and emerging economies," Working Papers PKWP2018, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    18. Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2021. "Finance, Discipline and the Labour Share in the Long‐Run: France (1911–2010) and Sweden (1891–2000)," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 568-594, June.
    19. Baltussen, Guido & Swinkels, Laurens & Van Vliet, Pim, 2021. "Global factor premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1128-1154.
    20. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    21. Martin Herdegen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2018. "Stability of Radner equilibria with respect to small frictions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 443-502, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1808.09686. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.