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A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

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  • Edgardo Brigatti
  • Felipe Macias
  • Max O. Souza
  • Jorge P. Zubelli

Abstract

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.

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  • Edgardo Brigatti & Felipe Macias & Max O. Souza & Jorge P. Zubelli, 2015. "A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing," Papers 1509.03577, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1509.03577
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
    2. Byron J. T. Morgan, 1989. "Introduction to Optimization," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 152(2), pages 254-255, March.
    3. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    4. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
    5. F. Hubalek & W. Schachermayer, 2001. "The Limitations Of No-Arbitrage Arguments For Real Options," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 361-373.
    6. repec:cdl:anderf:qt43n1k4jb is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    8. Octavio A. F. Tourinho., 1979. "The Option Value of Reserves of Natural Resources," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 94, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Föllmer, H. & Schweizer, M., 1989. "Hedging by Sequential Regression: an Introduction to the Mathematics of Option Trading," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(S1), pages 29-42, November.
    10. Scott Mathews & Vinay Datar & Blake Johnson, 2007. "A Practical Method for Valuing Real Options: The Boeing Approach," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(2), pages 95-104, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2023. "American options in time-dependent one-factor models: Semi-analytic pricing, numerical methods and ML support," Papers 2307.13870, arXiv.org.

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