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Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets

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  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Paul Kruhner

Abstract

We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realized as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipovi\'c. The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite dimensional L\'evy process. It is shown that the associated spot price dynamics can be expressed as a sum of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, or more generally, as a sum of certain stationary processes. These results link the possibly infinite dimensional forward dynamics to classical commodity spot models. We continue with a detailed analysis of multiplication and integral operators on the Hilbert spaces and show that Hilbert-Schmidt operators are essentially integral operators. The covariance operator of the L\'evy process driving the forward dynamics and the diffusion term can both be specified in terms of such operators, and we analyse in several examples the consequences on model dynamics and their probabilistic properties. Also, we represent the forward price for contracts delivering over a period in terms of an integral operator, a case being relevant for power and gas markets. In several examples we reduce our general model to existing commodity spot and forward dynamics.

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  • Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2014. "Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets," Papers 1403.4111, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.4111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Fred Benth & Jukka Lempa, 2014. "Optimal portfolios in commodity futures markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 407-430, April.
    8. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
    9. Fred Espen Benth & Jan Kallsen & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2007. "A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 153-169.
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    11. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Fred Espen Benth & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2013. "Modelling energy spot prices by volatility modulated L\'{e}vy-driven Volterra processes," Papers 1307.6332, arXiv.org.
    12. Tomas BjÃrk & Andrea Gombani, 1999. "Minimal realizations of interest rate models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 413-432.
    13. Dennis Frestad & Fred Espen Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2010. "Modeling Term Structure Dynamics in the Nordic Electricity Swap Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 53-86.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christa Cuchiero & Francesco Guida & Luca di Persio & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2021. "Measure-valued affine and polynomial diffusions," Papers 2112.15129, arXiv.org.
    2. Cox, Sonja & Karbach, Sven & Khedher, Asma, 2022. "Affine pure-jump processes on positive Hilbert–Schmidt operators," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 191-229.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Heidar Eyjolfsson, 2015. "Representation and approximation of ambit fields in Hilbert space," Papers 1509.08272, arXiv.org.
    4. Christa Cuchiero & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2021. "Infinite-dimensional polynomial processes," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 383-426, April.
    5. Stefan Tappe, 2022. "Invariant cones for jump-diffusions in infinite dimensions," Papers 2206.13913, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    6. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Krühner, 2018. "Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite-dimensional models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 327-366, April.
    7. Fred Espen Benth & Nils Detering & Luca Galimberti, 2022. "Pricing options on flow forwards by neural networks in Hilbert space," Papers 2202.11606, arXiv.org.
    8. Christa Cuchiero & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2019. "Infinite dimensional polynomial processes," Papers 1911.02614, arXiv.org.
    9. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2015. "Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite dimensional models," Papers 1512.05983, arXiv.org.
    10. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    11. Fred Espen Benth & Nils Detering & Silvia Lavagnini, 2020. "Accuracy of Deep Learning in Calibrating HJM Forward Curves," Papers 2006.01911, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    12. Sonja Cox & Sven Karbach & Asma Khedher, 2022. "An infinite‐dimensional affine stochastic volatility model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 878-906, July.
    13. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2014. "Derivatives pricing in energy markets: an infinite dimensional approach," Papers 1412.7943, arXiv.org.
    14. Christa Cuchiero & Luca Di Persio & Francesco Guida & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2022. "Measure-valued processes for energy markets," Papers 2210.09331, arXiv.org.
    15. Fred Espen Benth & Nils Detering & Silvia Lavagnini, 2021. "Accuracy of deep learning in calibrating HJM forward curves," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 209-248, December.
    16. Fred Espen Benth & Heidar Eyjolfsson, 2022. "Robustness of Hilbert space-valued stochastic volatility models," Papers 2211.16071, arXiv.org.
    17. Benth, Fred Espen & Schroers, Dennis & Veraart, Almut E.D., 2022. "A weak law of large numbers for realised covariation in a Hilbert space setting," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 241-268.
    18. Benth, Fred Espen & Rüdiger, Barbara & Süss, Andre, 2018. "Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes in Hilbert space with non-Gaussian stochastic volatility," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 461-486.
    19. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2018. "A space-time random field model for electricity forward prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-216.

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