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Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite-dimensional models

Author

Listed:
  • Fred Espen Benth

    (University of Oslo)

  • Paul Krühner

    (The University of Liverpool)

Abstract

In this paper, we show how to approximate Heath–Jarrow–Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite-dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed-form representation of the forward price dynamics in the approximation models and derive the rate of convergence to the true dynamics uniformly over an interval of time to maturity under certain additional smoothness conditions. In the Markovian case, we can strengthen the convergence to be uniform over time as well. Our results are based on the construction of a convenient Riesz basis on the state space of the term structure dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Fred Espen Benth & Paul Krühner, 2018. "Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite-dimensional models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 327-366, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:22:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00780-018-0355-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-018-0355-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Bruti-Liberati, 2007. "Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps in Finance," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1, July-Dece.
    2. Fred Benth & Jukka Lempa, 2014. "Optimal portfolios in commodity futures markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 407-430, April.
    3. Tomas Björk & Lars Svensson, 2001. "On the Existence of Finite‐Dimensional Realizations for Nonlinear Forward Rate Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 205-243, April.
    4. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Nicola Bruti-Liberati, 2007. "Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps in Finance," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2007.
    6. Fred Espen Benth & Jan Kallsen & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2007. "A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 153-169.
    7. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2014. "Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets," Papers 1403.4111, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Kruhner & Shijie Xu, 2023. "Statistically consistent term structures have affine geometry," Papers 2308.02246, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy markets; Heath–Jarrow–Morton modelling; Nonharmonic Fourier analysis; Arbitrage-free approximations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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