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Do Google Trend data contain more predictability than price returns?

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  • Damien Challet
  • Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed

Abstract

Using non-linear machine learning methods and a proper backtest procedure, we critically examine the claim that Google Trends can predict future price returns. We first review the many potential biases that may influence backtests with this kind of data positively, the choice of keywords being by far the greatest culprit. We then argue that the real question is whether such data contain more predictability than price returns themselves: our backtest yields a performance of about 17bps per week which only weakly depends on the kind of data on which predictors are based, i.e. either past price returns or Google Trends data, or both.

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  • Damien Challet & Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed, 2014. "Do Google Trend data contain more predictability than price returns?," Papers 1403.1715, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.1715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
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    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Using Twitter to Model the EUR/USD Exchange Rate," Papers 1402.1624, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M., 2016. "Trading volume in financial markets: An introductory review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 24-37.
    2. Jacques Bughin, 2015. "Google searches and twitter mood: nowcasting telecom sales performance," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 87-105, August.
    3. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Li, Chen, 2020. "Search of Attention in Financial Market," MPRA Paper 99003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dimitrios Vezeris & Themistoklis Kyrgos & Christos Schinas, 2018. "Take Profit and Stop Loss Trading Strategies Comparison in Combination with an MACD Trading System," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Kim, Neri & Lučivjanská, Katarína & Molnár, Peter & Villa, Roviel, 2019. "Google searches and stock market activity: Evidence from Norway," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 208-220.

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