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Statistical Inference for Time-changed Brownian Motion Credit Risk Models

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  • T. R. Hurd
  • Zhuowei Zhou

Abstract

We consider structural credit modeling in the important special case where the log-leverage ratio of the firm is a time-changed Brownian motion (TCBM) with the time-change taken to be an independent increasing process. Following the approach of Black and Cox, one defines the time of default to be the first passage time for the log-leverage ratio to cross the level zero. Rather than adopt the classical notion of first passage, with its associated numerical challenges, we accept an alternative notion applicable for TCBMs called "first passage of the second kind". We demonstrate how statistical inference can be efficiently implemented in this new class of models. This allows us to compare the performance of two versions of TCBMs, the variance gamma (VG) model and the exponential jump model (EXP), to the Black-Cox model. When applied to a 4.5 year long data set of weekly credit default swap (CDS) quotes for Ford Motor Co, the conclusion is that the two TCBM models, with essentially one extra parameter, can significantly outperform the classic Black-Cox model.

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  • T. R. Hurd & Zhuowei Zhou, 2011. "Statistical Inference for Time-changed Brownian Motion Credit Risk Models," Papers 1102.2412, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1102.2412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    2. T. R. Hurd, 2009. "Credit risk modeling using time-changed Brownian motion," Papers 0904.2376, arXiv.org.
    3. T. R. Hurd, 2009. "Credit Risk Modeling Using Time-Changed Brownian Motion," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(08), pages 1213-1230.
    4. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
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