A Convergent Validity Test of Recreation Use Value Estimates from the Contingent Valuation and Travel Cost Methods with Opt-in Panel Data

This paper tests convergent validity between the travel cost method and contingent valuation method using opt-in panel data on recreation trips to South Florida. Data come from four survey waves administered through the Dynata panel between April 2024 and March 2025, yielding a final sample of 2103 Florida residents who took a recent recreation trip and plan another. Respondents are split into day trippers and overnight trippers. Travel cost models estimate recreation demand with a truncated negative binomial specification, using both average and minimum travel cost to 11 South Florida sites as the price measure. Contingent valuation models use a panel logit specification with two dependent variables, an initial yes/no response to a hypothetical trip cost increase and a version adjusted for respondent certainty. Consumer surplus and willingness to pay estimates, along with Krinsky-Robb confidence intervals, are computed for all eight models. Willingness to pay exceeds consumer surplus in six of eight comparisons, but only one difference is statistically significant. The results suggest that Travel Cost Method and Contingent Valuation Method welfare estimates from opt-in panel data are largely convergent valid. The findings support continued, cautious use of opt-in panel data for recreation valuation. Key Words: travel cost method, contingent valuation method, convergent validity, opt-in panel data.