IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ant/wpaper/2022008.html

BLM protests and racial hate crime in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • CARR, Joel

Abstract

We provide evidence of the impact of protests following the death of George Floyd on anti-Black and anti-White hate crimes in the US. Using a regression discontinuity in time model, difference-in-differences, and synthetic control methods we find that recorded anti-Black (-White) hate crime increased by up to 15 (4) incidents per day or 259 (165) percent in June 2020. To account for changes in incentives to commit hate crimes during the coronavirus pandemic we control for other hate crime biases. We find that changes in unemployment due to the pandemic is a significant mediating factor in the hate crime shock against both groups and a larger shock in the first weeks of the protests in counties with a first BLM protest after Floyd’s death. In addition, we test for mechanisms driving the changes, including retaliation, protectionism, and changes in victim reporting. Anti-Black hate crime is more sensitive to saliency of opposition to protests, “White genocide”, and Derek Chauvin measured by tweets but less sensitive to cable news reporting. Using crime victimization survey we find that White hate crime victims were more likely to report victimization during the protests and evidence that police reduced effort toward Black hate crime victims and increased arrests of anti-White hate crime offenders. The results suggest that large scale protests or conflict between two groups during periods of increase in unemployment can lead to a substantial increase in expressed xenophobia.

Suggested Citation

  • CARR, Joel, 2022. "BLM protests and racial hate crime in the United States," Working Papers 2022008, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2022008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/11a3c0/rps_2022_008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shjarback, John A. & Pyrooz, David C. & Wolfe, Scott E. & Decker, Scott H., 2017. "De-policing and crime in the wake of Ferguson: Racialized changes in the quantity and quality of policing among Missouri police departments," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 42-52.
    2. Ria Ivandic & Tom Kirchmaier & Stephen Machin, 2019. "Jihadi attacks, media and local hate crime," CEP Discussion Papers dp1615, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Roland G. Fryer & Steven D. Levitt, 2012. "Hatred and Profits: Under the Hood of the Ku Klux Klan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(4), pages 1883-1925.
    4. Daniel Devine, 2021. "Discrete Events and Hate Crimes: The Causal Role of the Brexit Referendum," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(1), pages 374-386, January.
    5. Sylwia J Piatkowska & Brendan Lantz, 2021. "Temporal Clustering of Hate Crimes in the Aftermath of the Brexit Vote and Terrorist Attacks: A Comparison of Scotland and England and Wales [‘Psychological reactions to the 2017 Manchester Arena Bombing: A Population based study’]," The British Journal of Criminology, Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 648-669.
    6. Carr, Joel & Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna & James, Jonathan & Vujic, Suncica, 2020. "Love Thy Neighbour? Brexit and Hate Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 13902, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    8. Ria Ivandic & Tom Kirchmaier & Stephen Machin, 2019. "Jihadi attacks, the media and anti-Muslim hate crime," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 559, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Reny, Tyler T. & Newman, Benjamin J., 2021. "The Opinion-Mobilizing Effect of Social Protest against Police Violence: Evidence from the 2020 George Floyd Protests," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1499-1507, November.
    10. Alrababa’H, Ala’ & Marble, William & Mousa, Salma & Siegel, Alexandra A., 2021. "Can Exposure to Celebrities Reduce Prejudice? The Effect of Mohamed Salah on Islamophobic Behaviors and Attitudes," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1111-1128, November.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2011. "Racial Harassment, Ethnic Concentration, and Economic Conditions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 689-711, September.
    12. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    13. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    14. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    15. Leonardo Bursztyn & Georgy Egorov & Stefano Fiorin, 2020. "From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3522-3548, November.
    16. Armin Falk & Andreas Kuhn & Josef Zweimüller, 2011. "Unemployment and Right‐wing Extremist Crime," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113, pages 260-285, June.
    17. Edwards, Pearce & Arnon, Daniel, 2021. "Violence on Many Sides: Framing Effects on Protest and Support for Repression," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 488-506, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2026. "Estimating Causal Effects With Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 356-382, June.
    2. Demirci, Murat, 2023. "Youth responses to political populism: Education abroad as a step toward emigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 653-673.
    3. Bray, Kerry & Braakmann, Nils & Wildman, John, 2024. "Austerity, welfare cuts and hate crime: Evidence from the UK's age of austerity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Suwanprasert, Wisarut, 2023. "Consequences of Thailand’s 2006 military coup: Evidence from the synthetic control method," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Murat Demirci, 2021. "Rising Political Populism and Outmigration of Youth as International Students," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2123, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Cruz A. Echevarría & Serhat Hasancebi & Javier García-Enríquez, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    7. Nicolaj N. Mühlbach, 2020. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," CREATES Research Papers 2020-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira-Font, 2020. "Ensuring Stability, Accuracy and Meaningfulness in Synthetic Control Methods: The Regularized SHAP-Distance Method," IREA Working Papers 202005, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2020.
    9. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    10. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    11. Nimonka Bayale & Pouwemdéou Tchila & Jacques‐Patrick Arnold Yao & Honoré Tenakoua, 2022. "Do tax administration reforms improve tax revenue performance in Togo? Empirical insights from experimental approaches," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(2), pages 196-213, June.
    12. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    13. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    14. repec:osf:osfxxx:s8ayp_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Wang, Yimin, 2025. "Links between COVID-19 lockdowns and drug overdose deaths, evidence from panel data," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Burger, Anže & Marinč, Matej & Polanec, Sašo & Kotnik, Patricia, 2024. "Public procurement and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    17. Jared Greathouse & Vincent Nossek & Pierre Mandon, 2026. "Economic Impact of the Socio-Political Crisis in the Northwest and Southwest Regions of Cameroon: A Forward Difference-in-Differences Approach," CERDI Working papers hal-05523002, HAL.
    18. Raffaello Bronzini & Sauro Mocetti & Matteo Mongardini, 2020. "The economic effects of big events: Evidence from the great jubilee 2000 in Rome," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 801-822, September.
    19. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    20. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano, 2022. "When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(1), pages 181-195, March.
    21. aus dem Moore, Nils & Brehm, Johannes & Gruhl, Henri, 2025. "Driving innovation? Carbon tax effects in the Swedish transport sector," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2022008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joeri Nys (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ftufsbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.