IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ant/wpaper/2011011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Linear and nonlinear growth models using mixed modeling: An application on European import volumes

Author

Listed:
  • MARKIANIDOU, Paresa
  • WEEREN, Arie

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is the identification of appropriate growth models for trade volumes as a policy tool. The methodology utilized is based on linear and nonlinear mixed modeling. The specifications tested are the linear, the exponential, the logarithmic and the logistic model. The focus lies on the imports of Europe from the world. We present two pilot cases corresponding to different levels of aggregation in terms of country groups and product categories, thus emphasizing the differences between aggregate and disaggregate approaches. The core econometric finding suggests that no clear superiority can be attributed to a single growth model specification on either level of aggregation. Therefore, the implications of each specification on policy decision making is discussed and a recommendation on the use of such models for policy making is made. The growth models are further employed for the purpose of trend extrapolation, to initiate a discussion on the role and responsibility of transport policies implemented today based on alternative future scenarios 20 years ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • MARKIANIDOU, Paresa & WEEREN, Arie, 2011. "Linear and nonlinear growth models using mixed modeling: An application on European import volumes," Working Papers 2011011, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2011011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/eed917/77cc79eb.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    2. Laurence Le Fouler & Wim Suyker & Dave Turner, 2001. "Trade Linkages and the Trade Matrices in the OECD Interlink Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 310, OECD Publishing.
    3. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. David J. Evans, 2005. "The elasticity of marginal utility of consumption: estimates for 20 OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 197-224, June.
    5. Bröcker, Johannes & Korzhenevych, Artem & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine, 2011. "Predicting freight flows in a globalising world," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 37-44.
    6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2008. "Disaggregated Trade Flows and the "Missing Globalization Puzzle"," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 115, pages 141-164.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cacciatore, Matteo & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of euro area market reforms," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 555-581.
    2. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 721-750, June.
    3. Giorgia Albertin, 2008. "Trade Effects of Currency Unions; Do Economic Dissimilarities Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2008/249, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Demet Yilmazkuday & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2017. "The role of direct flights in trade costs," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 249-270, May.
    5. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    6. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    7. Trejos, Alberto & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti, 2008. "Trade in intermediate goods and total factor productivity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 676, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    8. Vasco Leite & Sofia Castro & João Correia-da-Silva, 2009. "The core periphery model with asymmetric inter-regional and intra-regional trade costs," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 8(1), pages 37-44, April.
    9. Charlotte Emlinger & Viola Lamani, 2020. "International trade, quality sorting and trade costs: the case of Cognac," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 579-609, August.
    10. Pyle, William, 2006. "Resolutions, recoveries and relationships: The evolution of payment disputes in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 317-337, June.
    11. Nilanjan Banik & John Gilbert, 2010. "Regional Integration and Trade Costs in South Asia," Chapters, in: Douglas H. Brooks & Susan F. Stone (ed.), Trade Facilitation and Regional Cooperation in Asia, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Gilles Duranton & Michael Storper, 2008. "Rising trade costs? Agglomeration and trade with endogenous transaction costs," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 292-319, February.
    13. Anderson Michael A. & Schaefer Kurt C. & Smith Stephen L. S., 2013. "Can Price Dispersion Reveal Distance-Related Trade Costs? Evidence from the United States," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 151-173, June.
    14. Larch, Mario, 2007. "The multinationalization of the transport sector," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 397-416.
    15. Shiro Armstrong, 2007. "Measuring Trade and Trade Potential: A Survey," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 368, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2007. "Productivity, terms of trade and the `home market effect'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 99-127, September.
    17. Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Libman, Alexander & Xiaofan, Yu, 2010. "State and market integration in China: A spatial econometrics approach to 'local protectionism'," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 137, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    18. Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US Data," Working papers 86, Banque de France.
    19. Asplund, Marcus & Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2007. "Demand and distance: Evidence on cross-border shopping," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 141-157, February.
    20. Jacks, David S., 2009. "On the death of distance and borders: Evidence from the nineteenth century," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 230-233, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mixed modeling; Growth expectations; Policy implications;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2011011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joeri Nys). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ftufsbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.