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Linear and nonlinear growth models using mixed modeling: An application on European import volumes

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  • MARKIANIDOU, Paresa
  • WEEREN, Arie

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is the identification of appropriate growth models for trade volumes as a policy tool. The methodology utilized is based on linear and nonlinear mixed modeling. The specifications tested are the linear, the exponential, the logarithmic and the logistic model. The focus lies on the imports of Europe from the world. We present two pilot cases corresponding to different levels of aggregation in terms of country groups and product categories, thus emphasizing the differences between aggregate and disaggregate approaches. The core econometric finding suggests that no clear superiority can be attributed to a single growth model specification on either level of aggregation. Therefore, the implications of each specification on policy decision making is discussed and a recommendation on the use of such models for policy making is made. The growth models are further employed for the purpose of trend extrapolation, to initiate a discussion on the role and responsibility of transport policies implemented today based on alternative future scenarios 20 years ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • MARKIANIDOU, Paresa & WEEREN, Arie, 2011. "Linear and nonlinear growth models using mixed modeling: An application on European import volumes," Working Papers 2011011, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2011011
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    File URL: https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/eed917/77cc79eb.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    2. Laurence Le Fouler & Wim Suyker & Dave Turner, 2001. "Trade Linkages and the Trade Matrices in the OECD Interlink Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 310, OECD Publishing.
    3. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. David J. Evans, 2005. "The elasticity of marginal utility of consumption: estimates for 20 OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 197-224, June.
    5. Bröcker, Johannes & Korzhenevych, Artem & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine, 2011. "Predicting freight flows in a globalising world," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 37-44.
    6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2008. "Disaggregated Trade Flows and the "Missing Globalization Puzzle"," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 115, pages 141-164.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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    Keywords

    Mixed modeling; Growth expectations; Policy implications;

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