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Predicting freight flows in a globalising world

  • Bröcker, Johannes
  • Korzhenevych, Artem
  • Riekhof, Marie-Catherine

In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in Transportation Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 37-44

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Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:31:y:2011:i:1:p:37-44
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  1. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," NBER Working Papers 9201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jonathan Eaton & Akiko Tamura, 1995. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," NBER Working Papers 4758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Brocker, Johannes & Rohweder, Herold C, 1990. "Barriers to International Trade: Methods of Measurement and Empirical Evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 289-305.
  6. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  7. John F. Helliwell & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2005. "Borders, Common Currencies, Trade, and Welfare: What Can We Learn from the Evidence?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Spring), pages 19-33.
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