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Predicting freight flows in a globalising world

Author

Listed:
  • Bröcker, Johannes
  • Korzhenevych, Artem
  • Riekhof, Marie-Catherine

Abstract

In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Bröcker, Johannes & Korzhenevych, Artem & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine, 2011. "Predicting freight flows in a globalising world," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 37-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:31:y:2011:i:1:p:37-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Brocker, Johannes & Rohweder, Herold C, 1990. "Barriers to International Trade: Methods of Measurement and Empirical Evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 24(4), pages 289-305.
    6. John F. Helliwell & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2005. "Borders, Common Currencies, Trade, and Welfare: What Can We Learn from the Evidence?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Spring), pages 19-33.
    7. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomez, Juan & Vassallo, José Manuel, 2015. "Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 282-297.
    2. Koopmans, Carl & Oosterhaven, Jan, 2011. "SCGE modelling in cost-benefit analysis: The Dutch experience," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 29-36.
    3. MARKIANIDOU, Paresa & WEEREN, Arie, 2011. "Linear and nonlinear growth models using mixed modeling: An application on European import volumes," Working Papers 2011011, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

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