Predicting freight flows in a globalising world
In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe.
Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brocker, Johannes & Rohweder, Herold C, 1990. "Barriers to International Trade: Methods of Measurement and Empirical Evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 289-305.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005.
"The Log of Gravity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994.
"Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December.
- Jonathan Eaton & Akilo Tamura, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 48, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Jonathan Eaton & Akiko Tamura, 1995. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," NBER Working Papers 4758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2005.
"Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 85-91, February.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," NBER Working Papers 9201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2003. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," Working Paper Series rwp03-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- John F. Helliwell & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2005. "Borders, Common Currencies, Trade, and Welfare: What Can We Learn from the Evidence?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Spring), pages 19-33.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:31:y:2011:i:1:p:37-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.