IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anp/en2008/200807211410580.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Choques monetários e cambiais sob regimes de câmbio flutuante nos países membros do Mercosul: há indícios de convergência macroeconômica?

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Raffy Vartanian

    (Univ. Mackenzie e Trevisan Escola de Negócios)

Abstract

Este artigo analisa o comportamento das economias dos quatro países membros do Mercosul. O objetivo consiste em verificar se, sob regimes de câmbio flutuante, há sinais de convergência macroeconômica entre os países do Bloco. Para tanto, a simulação de choques com o uso de vetores auto-regressivos (VAR) visou comparar o funcionamento e os efeitos das políticas monetária e cambial dos países. Complementarmente, foram executados testes de exogeneidade, com o intuito de se efetuar uma análise comparativa, e de estabilidade, para avaliar a ocorrência de eventuais choques simétricos na região. Os resultados demonstraram que não há qualquer indício de convergência macroeconômica entre os países do Mercosul, pois além da elasticidade distinta entre as variáveis estimadas para cada um dos países e das diferenças na classificação da exogeneidade das variáveis, os diferentes períodos de instabilidade indicaram assimetria de choques entre os países da região.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Raffy Vartanian, 2008. "Choques monetários e cambiais sob regimes de câmbio flutuante nos países membros do Mercosul: há indícios de convergência macroeconômica?," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211410580, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807211410580
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2008/artigos/200807211410580-.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles R. Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 31-52, Fall.
    2. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency," NBER Working Papers 6821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    4. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    6. Wong, Ka-fu, 2000. "Variability in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 179-198, May.
    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    8. C Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0086, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph A. Whitt, 1995. "European Monetary Union: evidence from structural VARs," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Derek W. Bunn & Carlo Fezzi, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Working Papers 2007.63, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Livio Stracca, "undated". "Economics and Politics: Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and EMU," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/6, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    4. Koren, Stephan & Stiassny, Alfred, 1998. "Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An International Study," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-191, April.
    5. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    6. Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 205, CESifo.
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Douven, R. C. & Engwerda, J. C., 1995. "Is there room for convergence in the E.C.?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 113-130, March.
    9. Erida Curraj, 2019. "Vintage Design Furniture in Albania, a New Retro Design Paradigm in the Post-Communist Era," European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, ejef_19.
    10. Beetsma, Roel M W J & Bovenberg, A Lans, 2000. "Designing Fiscal and Monetary Institutions for a European Monetary Union," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(3-4), pages 247-269, March.
    11. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 241-265.
    12. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    13. Mr. Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe, 2004. "A Theory of Workers' Remittances with An Application to Morocco," IMF Working Papers 2004/194, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. Win Chou & Dominica Lee, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 423-439, June.
    16. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodríguez, "undated". "Residuals-based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-017, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    17. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    18. Rivera, Nilza & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Jara, José Joaquín & Lagos, Gustavo, 2021. "Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Kocenda, Evzen & Papell, David H, 1997. "Inflation Convergence within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 189-198, July.
    20. Campo, Jacobo & Mendoza, Henry, 2018. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 88, pages 77-108, January.
    21. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807211410580. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Zadra Armond (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anpecea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.