Saldos Comerciais E Taxa De Câmbio Real: Uma Nova Análise Do Caso Brasileiro
This article aims to test whether or not there is a stable relation between trade balance and real exchange rate. The period covered by the sample goes from 1980 to 2004. The frequency of the data is quarterly. It was used the cointegration techniques developed by Johansen as econometric methodology. The results obtained in this articles show strong evidence in favor of a stable relation among real exchange rate and trade balance for twenty five years. The reason why the studies of the late nineties failed to obtain evidence in favor of this relation lies on the fact that the effects of the trade liberations measures adopted during the early nineties in Brazil took almost an entire decade to vanish. The huge devaluation of Brazilian currency in the 1999 has clearly speeded up the adjustment process.
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- Reinhart, Carmen, 1994.
"Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade,"
13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/140, International Monetary Fund.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1975. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Policy in a Popular Model of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 859-71, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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