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Saldos Comerciais e Taxa de Câmbio Real: Uma Nova Análise do Caso Brasileiro

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal

    (Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie)

  • Marislei Nishijima

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Wagner Oliveira Monteiro

    (Uninove)

Este artigo busca verificar em que medida o saldo comercial responde a alterações de preços relativos no período recente. O período estudado abrange os anos de 1980 a 2004. Busca-se também avaliar em que medida a relação encontrada entre saldo comercial e taxa de câmbio real manteve-se inalterada ao longo do período. A metodologia econométrica a ser utilizada consiste na análise de cointegração multivariada na forma proposta por Johansen nos seus trabalhos clássicos. A evidência obtida neste artigo com uma amostra razoavelmente longa indica que tal relação continua a existir e é estável para quase um quarto de século. A razão pela qual os estudos da segunda metade dos anos noventa colocaram em dúvida tal relação deve-se a ocorrência de um grande desequilíbrio que persistiu ao longo de toda década de noventa. O efeito sobre o saldo da abertura econômica demorou cerca de uma década para ser absorvido e claramente a desvalorização cambial de 1999 acelerou a correção deste desequilíbrio.

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Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 333_356

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Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:10:y:2009:i:2:333-356
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  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1975. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Policy in a Popular Model of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 859-71, December.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
  3. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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