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Consolidação Fiscal Nos Estados Brasileiros: Uma Análise De Duração

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  • Bruno de Paula Rocha
  • Fabiana Rocha

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the Brazilian state fiscal consolidation in the period 1986-2001. For that propose, we apply the duration models methodology. Henceforth, we try to list the main features that can explain the probability of the continuity of a state fiscal adjustment conditional to the duration of this adjustment up to this moment. The non-parametric results suggest that the probability of the continuity of a fiscal consolidation falls dramatically after the first year and even more after the second one. The parametric analysis shows that there is a core of relevant variables, such as: the Number of Fails, the ratio Personal Costs/Net Current Revenue, the dummy variable to the years before the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, the dummy variable to the years after the refinance law 9496/97 and the Polarization of the Political Colligation in the states.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno de Paula Rocha & Fabiana Rocha, 2005. "Consolidação Fiscal Nos Estados Brasileiros: Uma Análise De Duração," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 047, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:047
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2005/artigos/A05A047.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1987. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt in a Democracy," NBER Working Papers 2308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    4. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," NBER Working Papers 5730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Duration of Fiscal Budgetary Consolidations in the European Union," European Economy Group Working Papers 18, European Economy Group.
    9. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, "undated". "The size and the scope of government: Comparative politics with rational politicians," Working Papers 137, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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