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Consolidação Fiscal Nos Estados Brasileiros: Uma Análise De Duração

  • Bruno de Paula Rocha
  • Fabiana Rocha

The objective of this paper is to analyze the Brazilian state fiscal consolidation in the period 1986-2001. For that propose, we apply the duration models methodology. Henceforth, we try to list the main features that can explain the probability of the continuity of a state fiscal adjustment conditional to the duration of this adjustment up to this moment. The non-parametric results suggest that the probability of the continuity of a fiscal consolidation falls dramatically after the first year and even more after the second one. The parametric analysis shows that there is a core of relevant variables, such as: the Number of Fails, the ratio Personal Costs/Net Current Revenue, the dummy variable to the years before the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, the dummy variable to the years after the refinance law 9496/97 and the Polarization of the Political Colligation in the states.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 047.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:047
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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1987. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt in a Democracy," NBER Working Papers 2308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  4. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
  6. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
  7. Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Duration of Fiscal Budgetary Consolidations in the European Union," European Economy Group Working Papers 18, European Economy Group.
  8. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, . "The size and the scope of government: Comparative politics with rational politicians," Working Papers 137, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
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