Duration of Fiscal Budgetary Consolidations in the European Union
This paper examines the duration of fiscal consolidations among the fifteen EU Members States using data from the European Commission for the period 1960-2000. Using the duration model approach, we estimate the hazard and survivor functions of our series. Then we discuss what is the duration model that best fits our data, and which are the explanatory variables that best exp lain the probability of ending a fiscal consolidation period. We also deal with those aspects related to sample heterogeneity and the sensitivity of the results to different possible definitions of fiscal adjustment. We find evidence that the probability of ending a period of fiscal consolidation depends on the debt level, the magnitude of the adjustment, the extent of expenditure cuts, and the degree of cabinet fragmentation. We also find that under a stricter definition of fiscal consolidation, political variables, such as coalition size and election year, gain importance with respect to economic variables as predictors of the probability of ending a fiscal consolidation period.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Despacho 104.Pabelloon de Segundo, Facultad de Economicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid|
Web page: http://www.ucm.es/info/econeuro
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Despacho 104.Pabelloon de Segundo, Facultad de Economicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid|
Web: http://www.ucm.es/info/econeuro Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
- Weingast, Barry R & Shepsle, Kenneth A & Johnsen, Christopher, 1981. "The Political Economy of Benefits and Costs: A Neoclassical Approach to Distributive Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 642-64, August.
- Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1991.
"Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies,"
NBER Working Papers
3830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto F & Cohen, Gerald D & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies," CEPR Discussion Papers 608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert F. Westcott & C. John McDermott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 96/59, International Monetary Fund.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 4637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eeg:euroeg:18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ismael Sanz)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ismael Sanz to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.