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Is Organic Agriculture Sustainable? Quasi-Experimental Evidence with Heterogeneous Effects from Italian Farms

Author

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  • Roberto Esposti

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (UNIVPM))

Abstract

This paper evaluates the sustainability of organic farming by testing whether it achieves a win–win–win outcome, improving farm-level environmental and economic performance without compromising aggregate agricultural output. We adopt a quasi-experimental design that accounts for voluntary adoption and allows for heterogeneous treatment effects. We combine Random Forest and LASSO methods, enabling flexible, fully interactive modeling with high-dimensional covariates. The analysis is based on a balanced panel of Italian farms from the FADN dataset covering the period 2008–2022. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in the effects of organic farming adoption. A win–win–win outcome does not emerge on average but is observed only for a small subset of farms; for other groups, the full sustainability of organic adoption appears questionable. These findings call for more targeted and differentiated policy support to promote organic farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Esposti, 2026. "Is Organic Agriculture Sustainable? Quasi-Experimental Evidence with Heterogeneous Effects from Italian Farms," Working Papers 508, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:508
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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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