Is local opposition taking the wind out of the energy transition?

Local opposition to the installation of renewable energy sources is a potential threat to the energy transition. According to widespread belief, mostly based on anecdotal evidence, local communities tend to oppose to the construction of energy plants due to the supposedly negative externalities therein associated (the so-called “not in my backyard†or NIMBY phenomenon). Using administrative data on wind turbine installation and electoral outcomes across municipalities located in the South of Italy during 2005-20, we estimate the impact of wind turbines’ installation on incumbent regional coalitions’ electoral support during the next elections. Our main findings, obtained by instrumenting wind turbine development with wind speed, point in the direction of a mild and not statistically significant electoral backlash for right-wing regional coalitions and of a strong and statistically significant positive reinforcement for left-wing ones. Positive reinforcement appears to be weaker but still statistically significant in areas more exposed to the potentially negative economic effects of wind turbine development, with exposure proxied through higher house prices and tourism intensity. Based on our analysis, the hypothesis of a political cost associated with the development of wind turbines due to a NIMBY type of behavior appears to be rejected by the data.