IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/agy/dpaper/202303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reliability and Forced Outages: Survival Analysis with Recurrent Events

Author

Listed:
  • Majah-Leah V. Ravago

    (Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University)

  • Karl Robert L. Jandoc

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines)

  • Miah Maye Pormon

    (University of the Philippines)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the contributory factors to forced outage declarations of power plants through a survival analysis model with recurring events. Using plant-level data in the Philippines, we find that higher reserve margins, higher share capacity (a measure of concentration) and the number of planned outages and days since the last maintenance (preventive maintenance indicators) reduce the risk of forced outages. On the other hand, an increase in the use rate (a measure of the intensity of power plant utilization), and geothermal, solar and biodiesel plants correlate positively to more forced outages. Focusing on episodes where outages were disproportionately higher in the past decade— we find that thinning reserve margin correlates significantly to forced outage incidence. This may indicate potential tacit coordination among generators to withhold capacity in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Majah-Leah V. Ravago & Karl Robert L. Jandoc & Miah Maye Pormon, 2023. "Reliability and Forced Outages: Survival Analysis with Recurrent Events," Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, Working Paper Series 202303, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University.
    • Handle: RePEc:agy:dpaper:202303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ateneo.edu/sites/default/files/2023-01/AdMU%20WP%202023-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milton Fonseca Junior & Ubiratan Holanda Bezerra & Jandecy Cabral Leite & Jorge Laureano Moya Rodríguez, 2017. "Maintenance Tools applied to Electric Generators to Improve Energy Efficiency and Power Quality of Thermoelectric Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Paul L. Joskow & Edward Kohn, 2002. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-35.
    3. Su, Chun & Wang, Xiaolin, 2016. "A two-stage preventive maintenance optimization model incorporating two-dimensional extended warranty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 169-178.
    4. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.
    5. Huang, Zhouchun & Zheng, Qipeng Phil, 2020. "A multistage stochastic programming approach for preventive maintenance scheduling of GENCOs with natural gas contract," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 1036-1051.
    6. Belyi, Dmitriy & Popova, Elmira & Morton, David P. & Damien, Paul, 2017. "Bayesian failure-rate modeling and preventive maintenance optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1085-1093.
    7. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
    8. Wolak, Frank A., 2003. "Diagnosing the California Electricity Crisis," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 11-37.
    9. Min Li & Hui Hou & Jufang Yu & Hao Geng & Ling Zhu & Yong Huang & Xianqiang Li, 2021. "Prediction of Power Outage Quantity of Distribution Network Users under Typhoon Disaster Based on Random Forest and Important Variables," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, January.
    10. Tae-Woo Kim & Yenjae Chang & Dae-Wook Kim & Man-Keun Kim, 2020. "Preventive Maintenance and Forced Outages in Power Plants in Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-12, July.
    11. Harvey, Scott M. & Hogan, William W. & Schatzki, Todd, 2005. "A Hazard Rate Analysis of Mirant’s Generating Plant Outages in California (Jan-04)," Working Paper Series rwp05-027, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell, 2015. "The US Electricity Industry After 20 Years of Restructuring," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 437-463, August.
    2. Woo, C.K. & King, M. & Tishler, A. & Chow, L.C.H., 2006. "Costs of electricity deregulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 747-768.
    3. Newbery, David M. & Greve, Thomas, 2017. "The strategic robustness of oligopoly electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 124-132.
    4. Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2006. "Likely failure of electricity deregulation: Explanation with application to Israel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 845-856.
    5. Meredith Fowlie & Mar Reguant & Stephen P. Ryan, 2016. "Market-Based Emissions Regulation and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 249-302.
    6. Meredith Fowlie, 2008. "Incomplete Environmental Regulation, Imperfect Competition, and Emissions Leakage," NBER Working Papers 14421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fridolfsson, Sven-Olof & Tangerås, Thomas P., 2009. "Market power in the Nordic electricity wholesale market: A survey of the empirical evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3692, September.
    8. David P. Brown & Derek E. H. Olmstead, 2017. "Measuring market power and the efficiency of Alberta's restructured electricity market: An energy-only market design," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 838-870, August.
    9. Simshauser, P., 2020. "Merchant utilities and boundaries of the firm: vertical integration in energy-only markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2039, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Dressler, Luisa, 2016. "Support schemes for renewable electricity in the European Union: Producer strategies and competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 186-196.
    11. Horowitz, I. & Woo, C.K., 2006. "Designing Pareto-superior demand-response rate options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1040-1051.
    12. Stephen P. Ryan & Mar Reguant & Meredith Fowlie, 2011. "Pollution Permits and the Evolution of Market Structure," 2011 Meeting Papers 1440, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Amundsen, Eirik S. & Bergman, Lars, 2006. "Why has the Nordic electricity market worked so well?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 148-157, September.
    14. Poletti, Steve, 2009. "Government procurement of peak capacity in the New Zealand electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3409-3417, September.
    15. Simshauser, Paul & Tian, Yuan & Whish-Wilson, Patrick, 2015. "Vertical integration in energy-only electricity markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-56.
    16. Teirila, J., 2017. "Market Power in the Capacity Market? The Case of Ireland," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1727, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Graf, Christoph & Wozabal, David, 2013. "Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 948-958.
    18. Ali Hortaçsu & Steven L. Puller, 2008. "Understanding strategic bidding in multi‐unit auctions: a case study of the Texas electricity spot market," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(1), pages 86-114, March.
    19. Simshauser, Paul, 2021. "Vertical integration, peaking plant commitments and the role of credit quality in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Baskette, C. & Horii, B. & Kollman, E. & Price, S., 2006. "Avoided cost estimation and post-reform funding allocation for California's energy efficiency programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1084-1099.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced outage; survival analysis; recurring events; Philippines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agy:dpaper:202303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jat Tancangco (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deadmph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.