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Reliability and Forced Outages: Survival Analysis with Recurrent Events

Author

Listed:
  • Majah-Leah V. Ravago

    (Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University)

  • Karl Robert L. Jandoc

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines)

  • Miah Maye Pormon

    (University of the Philippines)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the contributory factors to forced outage declarations of power plants through a survival analysis model with recurring events. Using plant-level data in the Philippines, we find that higher reserve margins, higher share capacity (a measure of concentration) and the number of planned outages and days since the last maintenance (preventive maintenance indicators) reduce the risk of forced outages. On the other hand, an increase in the use rate (a measure of the intensity of power plant utilization), and geothermal, solar and biodiesel plants correlate positively to more forced outages. Focusing on episodes where outages were disproportionately higher in the past decade— we find that thinning reserve margin correlates significantly to forced outage incidence. This may indicate potential tacit coordination among generators to withhold capacity in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Majah-Leah V. Ravago & Karl Robert L. Jandoc & Miah Maye Pormon, 2023. "Reliability and Forced Outages: Survival Analysis with Recurrent Events," Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, Working Paper Series 202303, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University.
    • Handle: RePEc:agy:dpaper:202303
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ateneo.edu/sites/default/files/2023-01/AdMU%20WP%202023-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Su, Chun & Wang, Xiaolin, 2016. "A two-stage preventive maintenance optimization model incorporating two-dimensional extended warranty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 169-178.
    2. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.
    3. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
    4. Min Li & Hui Hou & Jufang Yu & Hao Geng & Ling Zhu & Yong Huang & Xianqiang Li, 2021. "Prediction of Power Outage Quantity of Distribution Network Users under Typhoon Disaster Based on Random Forest and Important Variables," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, January.
    5. Harvey, Scott M. & Hogan, William W. & Schatzki, Todd, 2005. "A Hazard Rate Analysis of Mirant’s Generating Plant Outages in California (Jan-04)," Working Paper Series rwp05-027, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced outage; survival analysis; recurring events; Philippines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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