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A Hazard Rate Analysis of Mirant’s Generating Plant Outages in California (Jan-04)

Author

Listed:
  • Harvey, Scott M.

    (Harvard U)

  • Hogan, William W.

    (LECG, LLC.)

  • Schatzki, Todd

    (Harvard U)

Abstract

A model of generator withholding is critical for analyses of market power. The California electricity market crisis of 2000-2001 saw increased utilization of fossil fuel plants. The stressed conditions could have affected normal outage rates. A hazard rate analysis applied to the Mirant generating plants indicates that higher utilization should increase outage rates. The predicted crisis outage rates should have been higher than the historical average. Actual outage rates were significantly lower than would be predicted based on pre-crisis behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvey, Scott M. & Hogan, William W. & Schatzki, Todd, 2005. "A Hazard Rate Analysis of Mirant’s Generating Plant Outages in California (Jan-04)," Working Paper Series rwp05-027, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp05-027
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    File URL: https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=172
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    Cited by:

    1. Majah-Leah V. Ravago & Karl Robert L. Jandoc & Miah Maye Pormon, 2023. "Reliability and Forced Outages: Survival Analysis with Recurrent Events," Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, Working Paper Series 202303, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University.

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