Africa's Agricultural Trade: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has the potential to be among the largest free trade areas in the world once fully implemented; trade under the AfCFTA began on January 1, 2021. It could potentially connect 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) valued at $3.4 trillion, according to the World Bank. The free trade area could particularly influence African agricultural trade as growth in member economies increase the demand for processed agricultural products. These include sugars, beverages, miscellaneous prepared foods, animal and vegetable oils, dairy and poultry, and prepared cereals. This report examines past and emerging trends in Africa’s sources and destinations of agricultural commodities traded. Particular attention is given to the changing patterns of agricultural trade from within and outside the continent, including within existing free trade areas. While intraregional nonagricultural trade dominates the region, consumer-oriented agricultural goods contributed to about half of the intra-Africa agricultural trade from 2017–19. Much of the growth in agricultural trade was within the region over the last two decades. U.S. agricultural exports to Africa also slowly shifted from bulk cereals (wheat and corn) to higher value agricultural products such as poultry. Consumer-oriented and intermediate agricultural goods made up 44 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to Africa in 2017–19, up from 29 percent in 1999–2001. High urban population and income growth rates, together with the AfCFTA’s potential to expand intra-Africa trade may offer an opportunity for U.S. firms to help meet Africa’s rapidly growing demand.