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Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics

Author

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  • Gregory, Allan W.
  • Smith, Gregor W.

Abstract

We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We also provide a concise bibliography of recent research on statistical methods for business-cycle models.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273753, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:273753
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273753
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 123-144, Suppl. De.
    2. Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1996. "Measuring business cycles with business-cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1007-1025.
    3. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
    4. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
    5. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
    6. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
    7. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
    8. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1996. "The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter.
    9. Pagan, Adrian, 1994. "Calibration and Econometric Research: An Overview: Introduction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 1-10, Suppl. De.
    10. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    11. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1991. "Real business-cycle theory : Wisdom or whimsy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 607-626, October.
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    2. Renee Fry, 2004. "International demand and liquidity shocks in a SVAR model of the Australian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 849-863.
    3. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2007. "Common shocks, common dynamics, and the international business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 149-166, January.
    4. Dalibor Roháč, 2012. "On economists and garbagemen: Reflections on Šťastný (2010)," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 173-183, June.
    5. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2006. "Measuring the Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in the G7 Economies," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp06028, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    6. Magalhães, Matheus Albergaria de & Picchetti, Paulo, 2005. "Regress and Progress! An Econometric Characterization of the Short-Run Relationship between Productivity and Labor Input in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    7. Sussmuth, Bernd, 2003. "Modeling the synchronization of sectoral investment cycles on the base of informational externalities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-54, March.
    8. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    9. Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82.
    10. Daniel Harenberg & Stefano Marelli & Bruno Sudret & Viktor Winschel, 2019. "Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis for economic models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, January.
    11. Paul Conway & David Frame, 2000. "A spectral analysis of New Zealand output gaps using Fourier and wavelet techniques," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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